Week 10 2021 · November 14, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Panthers at Cardinals, Week 10 2021: who deserved to win?
The Panthers beat the Cardinals 34–10, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Panthers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 6.6 points to the Panthers.
Before kickoff the Cardinals were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:41 left): the Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 22 points of win probability to the Panthers.
Final
 Carolina Panthers | 34 |
|---|---|
 Arizona Cardinals | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +47 Panthers lucky · −47 Cardinals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Panthers win 5, Cardinals win 5.
- 1 CAR 29 ARI 6
- 2 CAR 15 ARI 0
- 3 CAR 23 ARI 13
- 4 CAR 19 ARI 13
- 5 CAR 15 ARI 13
- 6 CAR 27 ARI 29
- 7 CAR 21 ARI 26
- 8 CAR 6 ARI 16
- 9 CAR 14 ARI 29
- 10 CAR 0 ARI 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Panthers win 53% of them, Cardinals 47%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Panthers by 17+ | 12.0% |
| Panthers by 9–16 | 15.2% |
| Panthers by 1–8 | 21.6% |
| Level after regulation | 5.4% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 21.3% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 13.8% |
| Cardinals by 17+ | 10.8% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Panthers by 24. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Panthers by 17.0.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- Z. Gonzalez, 44 yds made · 83% expected
- Z. Gonzalez, 48 yds made · 76% expected
- Z. Gonzalez, 49 yds made · 75% expected
- M. Prater, 47 yds made · 77% expected
- Z. Gonzalez, 27 yds made · 98% expected
When it happened
Cardinals’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:41 | The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedThe Cardinals fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +22% CAR | ARI: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 13:34 | The Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% CAR | CAR: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 12:45 | The Panthers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +7% CAR | CAR: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 11:18 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Panthers (Cam Newton), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 1017 snaps before, position avg 1 per 711 | +4% ARI | ARI: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q1 9:58 | The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +6% CAR | ARI: Turnover |
| 6 | Q1 6:25 | Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +3% ARI | ARI: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 9:45 | Z. Gonzalez made 48-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 20 of 29 from 45+ before | +4% CAR | CAR: Turnover |
| 8 | Q2 0:04 | Z. Gonzalez made 49-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 21 of 30 from 45+ before | +5% CAR | CAR: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Kyler Murray (ARI QB), out, replaced by c.mccoy · 5.5 pts
- J.J. Watt (ARI DE), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
- DeAndre Hopkins (ARI WR), out · 1.2 pts
- Justin Pugh (ARI G), out · 0.4 pts
- Maxx Williams (ARI TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Max Garcia (ARI C), out · 0.2 pts
- Chase Edmonds (ARI RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Aaron Brewer (ARI LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Cameron Erving (CAR T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Matt Paradis (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- John Miller (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Sam Darnold (CAR QB), out (IR), replaced by p.walker · 0.2 pts
- Joseph Charlton (CAR P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Panthers 100% · Cardinals 0%
- Final margin
- Panthers by 24
- Luck in points
- 7.0 for the Panthers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Panthers by 17.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Panthers 53% · Cardinals 47% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2021 games · 
Panthers · 
Cardinals
More from Week 10 2021
- Ravens at Dolphins MIA 22–10 · replay 36% for the winner
- Falcons at Cowboys DAL 43–3 · replay 95% for the winner
- Bills at Jets BUF 45–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Browns at Patriots NE 45–7 · replay 96% for the winner
- Lions at Steelers PIT 16–16 · replay 39% for the winner
- Jaguars at Colts IND 23–17 · replay 71% for the winner
- Saints at Titans TEN 23–21 · replay 37% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Washington WAS 29–19 · replay 17% for the winner
- Vikings at Chargers MIN 27–20 · replay 24% for the winner
- Eagles at Broncos PHI 30–13 · replay 70% for the winner
- Seahawks at Packers GB 17–0 · replay 79% for the winner
- Chiefs at Raiders KC 41–14 · replay 84% for the winner
- Rams at 49ers SF 31–10 · replay 49% for the winner