Week 10 2021 · November 14, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Lions at Steelers, Week 10 2021: who deserved to win?
The Steelers and the Lions tied 16–16. Replayed with the way both teams played, the Steelers win 4 of 10.
An off day for the Steelers: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Lions they would win 72% of the time; with this day’s form, 39%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Steelers were 75% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 6:42 left): Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Devin Bush Jr.), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 35 points of win probability to the Lions.
Final (OT)
 Detroit Lions | 16 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Steelers about even · −11 Lions
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Lions win 6, Steelers win 4.
- 1 DET 37 PIT 12
- 2 DET 20 PIT 3
- 3 DET 23 PIT 10
- 4 DET 27 PIT 19
- 5 DET 29 PIT 24
- 6 DET 19 PIT 17
- 7 DET 23 PIT 26
- 8 DET 13 PIT 22
- 9 DET 14 PIT 28
- 10 DET 17 PIT 40
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Steelers
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Lions they would win 72% of the time; with this day’s form, 39%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
33 points apart for the Steelers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lions offenseEPA per play gained | −0.11 | +0.08 | worse by 0.18 |
| Lions defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.04 | +0.24 | better by 0.28 |
| Steelers offenseEPA per play gained | −0.04 | +0.09 | worse by 0.13 |
| Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.11 | +0.08 | better by 0.19 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Lions win 61% of them, Steelers 39%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tie.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Lions by 17+ | 16.6% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 17.0% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 24.2% |
| Level after regulation | 3.0% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 18.3% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 13.1% |
| Steelers by 17+ | 7.8% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was even. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Steelers by 4.3.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Boswell, 20 yds made · 100% expected
- R. Santoso, 20 yds made · 99% expected
- C. Boswell, 23 yds made · 100% expected
- C. Boswell, 51 yds made · 67% expected
- R. Santoso, 48 yds missed · 68% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
When it happened
Steelers’ chance of winning
As low as 13% and as high as 97%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q4 11:36 | C. Boswell made 51-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 17 of 19 from 45+ before | +11% PIT | PIT: Punt |
| 2 | QOT 7:59 | The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +24% PIT | DET: Punt |
| 3 | QOT 6:42 | Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Devin Bush Jr.), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1615 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 | +35% DET | DET: Missed field goal |
| 4 | QOT 5:50 | Roughing the Passer on the Steelers (Tre Norwood), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 277 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 | +21% DET | DET: Missed field goal |
| 5 | QOT 4:21 | Offensive Holding on the Lions (T.J. Hockenson), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 14 flags in 1745 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 | +26% PIT | PIT: Punt |
| 6 | QOT 4:15 | The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +22% DET | DET: Missed field goal |
| 7 | QOT 4:08 | R. Santoso missed 48-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +18% PIT | DET: Punt |
| 8 | QOT 3:30 | The Steelers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +21% PIT | PIT: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Ben Roethlisberger (PIT QB), out (IR), replaced by m.rudolph · 3.4 pts
- JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Chase Claypool (PIT WR), out · 0.8 pts
- Frank Ragnow (DET C), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Quintez Cephus (DET WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Romeo Okwara (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Austin Seibert (DET K), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Lions 52% · Steelers 48%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in points
- 4.3 for the Lions
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Steelers by 4.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Lions 61% · Steelers 39% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2021 games · 
Lions · 
Steelers
More from Week 10 2021
- Ravens at Dolphins MIA 22–10 · replay 36% for the winner
- Falcons at Cowboys DAL 43–3 · replay 95% for the winner
- Bills at Jets BUF 45–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Browns at Patriots NE 45–7 · replay 96% for the winner
- Jaguars at Colts IND 23–17 · replay 71% for the winner
- Saints at Titans TEN 23–21 · replay 37% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Washington WAS 29–19 · replay 17% for the winner
- Panthers at Cardinals CAR 34–10 · replay 53% for the winner
- Vikings at Chargers MIN 27–20 · replay 24% for the winner
- Eagles at Broncos PHI 30–13 · replay 70% for the winner
- Seahawks at Packers GB 17–0 · replay 79% for the winner
- Chiefs at Raiders KC 41–14 · replay 84% for the winner
- Rams at 49ers SF 31–10 · replay 49% for the winner