2021 season · final
Pittsburgh Steelers, 2021: game by game
The Steelers went 9–7–1 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 5.6 wins. Luck added 3.9: the luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 8–2–1.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.0.
Every game
How often the Steelers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Bills | W 23–16 | 59% | +41 |
| Week 2 | vs Raiders | L 17–26 | 21% | −21 |
| Week 3 | vs Bengals | L 10–24 | 16% | −16 |
| Week 4 | @ Packers | L 17–27 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 5 | vs Broncos | W 27–19 | 49% | +51 |
| Week 6 | vs Seahawks | W 23–20 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 8 | @ Browns | W 15–10 | 51% | +49 |
| Week 9 | vs Bears | W 29–27 | 34% | +66 |
| Week 10 | vs Lions | T 16–16 | 35% | +15 |
| Week 11 | @ Chargers | L 37–41 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 12 | @ Bengals | L 10–41 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 13 | vs Ravens | W 20–19 | 66% | +34 |
| Week 14 | @ Vikings | L 28–36 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 15 | vs Titans | W 19–13 | 66% | +34 |
| Week 16 | @ Chiefs | L 10–36 | 12% | −12 |
| Week 17 | vs Browns | W 26–14 | 34% | +66 |
| Week 18 | @ Ravens | W 16–13 | 14% | +86 |
| Wild Card | @ Chiefs | L 21–42 | 1% | −1 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Steelers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +1.01 | +6.5 |
| Judgment calls | +0.56 | +23.4 |
| Injuries | +0.20 | +6.8 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.08 | −0.9 |
| Rest | −0.03 | −1.4 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.52 | −4.2 |