luckadjusted

Week 17 2021 · January 3, 2022

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Steelers, Week 17 2021: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Browns 26–14, but the Browns played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Steelers.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:33 left): the Browns were stopped on 4th & 7, worth 10 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Cleveland Browns 14
Pittsburgh Steelers 26

January 3, 2022 · Heinz Field · Closing line: Browns −1

Luck index +62 Steelers very lucky · −62 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 6, Steelers win 4.

  1. 1 CLE 34 PIT 12
  2. 2 CLE 29 PIT 13
  3. 3 CLE 23 PIT 10
  4. 4 CLE 21 PIT 13
  5. 5 CLE 10 PIT 5
  6. 6 CLE 30 PIT 28
  7. 7 CLE 16 PIT 19
  8. 8 CLE 13 PIT 19
  9. 9 CLE 14 PIT 25
  10. 10 CLE 3 PIT 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 62% of them, Steelers 38%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+17.6%
Browns by 9–1620.5%
Browns by 1–824.0%
Level after regulation2.5%
Steelers by 1–817.9%
Steelers by 9–1610.9%
Steelers by 17+6.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 12. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Steelers by 8.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 22 yds made · 100% expected
  • C. Boswell, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Boswell, 50 yds made · 69% expected
  • C. Boswell, 48 yds made · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:41 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedFalse Start on the Steelers (Diontae Johnson), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 14 flags in 2382 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +8% CLE PIT: Punt
2 Q1 5:33 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +10% PIT CLE: Punt
3 Q1 2:54 The Steelers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +9% PIT PIT: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 0:46 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% CLE PIT: Touchdown
5 Q1 0:02 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +6% PIT CLE: Punt
6 Q2 9:04 The Steelers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% PIT PIT: Punt
7 Q3 1:01 The Browns converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +7% CLE CLE: Touchdown
8 Q4 14:22 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% PIT PIT: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Schobert (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Kevin Dotson (PIT G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Chris Wormley (PIT DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kendrick Green (PIT C), out · 0.3 pts
  • John Johnson (CLE FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Troy Hill (CLE CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ronnie Harrison (CLE SS), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 14% · Steelers 86%

Final margin
Steelers by 12
Luck in points
3.8 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 8.2
Replay with same day's form
Browns 62% · Steelers 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2021 games · Browns · Steelers

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