luckadjusted

Week 17 2021 · January 2, 2022

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Panthers at Saints, Week 17 2021: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Panthers 18–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 8 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.0 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Saints were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 12:09 left): L. Hajrullahu missed 47-yard field goal, worth 17 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

Carolina Panthers 10
New Orleans Saints 18

January 2, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −7

Luck index +19 Saints about even · −19 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 2, Saints win 8.

  1. 1 CAR 22 NO 10
  2. 2 CAR 12 NO 9
  3. 3 CAR 13 NO 15
  4. 4 CAR 10 NO 14
  5. 5 CAR 16 NO 23
  6. 6 CAR 14 NO 24
  7. 7 CAR 3 NO 16
  8. 8 CAR 10 NO 26
  9. 9 CAR 13 NO 33
  10. 10 CAR 3 NO 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 19% of them, Saints 81%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+1.6%
Panthers by 9–164.9%
Panthers by 1–811.6%
Level after regulation1.9%
Saints by 1–827.3%
Saints by 9–1621.6%
Saints by 17+31.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 6.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • L. Hajrullahu, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • B. Maher, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • B. Maher, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. Maher, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • B. Maher, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • L. Hajrullahu, 47 yds missed · 79% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:14 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe Panthers fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% NO CAR: Punt
2 Q2 7:56 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% NO CAR: Punt
3 Q2 5:58 The Saints converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +10% NO NO: Punt
4 Q2 1:14 The Saints converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +10% NO NO: Field goal
5 Q2 0:27 The Saints converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% NO NO: Field goal
6 Q3 9:35 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Saints (Taysom Hill), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 1540 snaps before, position avg 1 per 711 +14% CAR NO: Punt
7 Q3 0:35 The Panthers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +9% CAR CAR: Missed field goal
8 Q4 12:09 L. Hajrullahu missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before +17% NO CAR: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Ramczyk (NO T), out (IR) · 1.6 pts
  • Terron Armstead (NO T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Erik McCoy (NO C), out · 0.5 pts
  • Marcus Williams (NO FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tre'Quan Smith (NO WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Nick Vannett (NO TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Donte Jackson (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Stephon Gilmore (CAR CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Cameron Erving (CAR T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Haason Reddick (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Zane Gonzalez (CAR K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Matt Paradis (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tommy Tremble (CAR TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Juston Burris (CAR SS), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 11% · Saints 89%

Final margin
Saints by 8
Luck in points
2.0 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 6.0
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 19% · Saints 81% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2021 games · Panthers · Saints

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