luckadjusted

Week 17 2021 · January 2, 2022

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jaguars at Patriots, Week 17 2021: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Jaguars 50–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 90% favorites.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 10
New England Patriots 50

January 2, 2022 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −17.5

Luck index +5 Patriots about even · −5 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 1, Patriots win 9.

  1. 1 JAX 23 NE 17
  2. 2 JAX 32 NE 34
  3. 3 JAX 27 NE 33
  4. 4 JAX 13 NE 21
  5. 5 JAX 23 NE 34
  6. 6 JAX 24 NE 38
  7. 7 JAX 12 NE 30
  8. 8 JAX 6 NE 27
  9. 9 JAX 20 NE 45
  10. 10 JAX 16 NE 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 5% of them, Patriots 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 40.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+0.2%
Jaguars by 9–161.1%
Jaguars by 1–83.5%
Level after regulation0.7%
Patriots by 1–814.4%
Patriots by 9–1620.4%
Patriots by 17+59.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 40. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 31.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Wright, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • N. Folk, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:35 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +1% JAX JAX: Punt
2 Q1 11:18 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Jakob Johnson), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1077 snaps before, position avg 1 per 464 +3% JAX JAX: Field goal
3 Q1 10:19 The Patriots converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +2% NE NE: Touchdown
4 Q1 8:08 The Patriots converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +5% NE NE: Touchdown
5 Q1 5:04 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +4% JAX JAX: Field goal
6 Q1 2:27 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +4% NE JAX: Field goal
7 Q2 10:37 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +2% JAX JAX: Turnover
8 Q2 7:27 The Patriots converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +2% NE NE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nelson Agholor (NE WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Cam Robinson (JAX T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Shaquill Griffin (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Rayshawn Jenkins (JAX SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Andrew Wingard (JAX FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ben Bartch (JAX T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brandon Linder (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dan Arnold (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jamal Agnew (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Logan Cooke (JAX P), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dawuane Smoot (JAX DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • James O'Shaughnessy (JAX TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • James Robinson (JAX RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Rudy Ford (JAX SS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 0% · Patriots 100%

Final margin
Patriots by 40
Luck in points
8.4 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 31.6
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 5% · Patriots 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2021 games · Jaguars · Patriots

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