luckadjusted

Week 17 2021 · January 2, 2022

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Vikings at Packers, Week 17 2021: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Vikings 37–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 83% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:17 left): Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Vikings, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 11 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 10
Green Bay Packers 37

January 2, 2022 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −13

Luck index +3 Packers about even · −3 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 0, Packers win 10.

  1. 1 MIN 16 GB 19
  2. 2 MIN 13 GB 20
  3. 3 MIN 23 GB 33
  4. 4 MIN 24 GB 38
  5. 5 MIN 24 GB 40
  6. 6 MIN 17 GB 36
  7. 7 MIN 10 GB 31
  8. 8 MIN 14 GB 39
  9. 9 MIN 13 GB 41
  10. 10 MIN 7 GB 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 2% of them, Packers 98%. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 27.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+0.1%
Vikings by 9–160.5%
Vikings by 1–81.9%
Level after regulation0.3%
Packers by 1–88.1%
Packers by 9–1617.5%
Packers by 17+71.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 27. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 12.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 35 yds made · 91% expected
  • M. Crosby, 36 yds made · 90% expected
  • G. Joseph, 51 yds made · 64% expected
  • M. Crosby, 37 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:19 The Packers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +9% GB GB: Field goal
2 Q1 10:17 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Vikings, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% GB GB: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 9:12 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +9% GB MIN: Punt
4 Q1 7:37 The Packers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +4% GB GB: Turnover on downs
5 Q1 5:29 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +5% MIN GB: Turnover on downs
6 Q1 4:41 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +7% MIN GB: Punt
7 Q1 1:33 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +5% MIN GB: Punt
8 Q2 9:18 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +6% MIN GB: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Randall Cobb (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Billy Turner (GB T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Elgton Jenkins (GB G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Kingsley Keke (GB DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kirk Cousins (MIN QB), out (IR), replaced by s.mannion · 7.9 pts
  • Everson Griffen (MIN DE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Adam Thielen (MIN WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Cameron Dantzler (MIN CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Mason Cole (MIN C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Nick Vigil (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 0% · Packers 100%

Final margin
Packers by 27
Luck in points
14.9 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 12.1
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 2% · Packers 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2021 games · Vikings · Packers

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