luckadjusted

Week 17 2021 · January 2, 2022

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Buccaneers at Jets, Week 17 2021: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Jets 28–24, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 86% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:17 left): the Jets were stopped on 4th & 2, worth 11 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28
New York Jets 24

January 2, 2022 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −14.5

Luck index +11 Buccaneers about even · −11 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 9, Jets win 1.

  1. 1 TB 44 NYJ 10
  2. 2 TB 36 NYJ 10
  3. 3 TB 25 NYJ 3
  4. 4 TB 34 NYJ 16
  5. 5 TB 38 NYJ 23
  6. 6 TB 29 NYJ 17
  7. 7 TB 33 NYJ 24
  8. 8 TB 16 NYJ 10
  9. 9 TB 30 NYJ 27
  10. 10 TB 17 NYJ 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 89% of them, Jets 11%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+49.8%
Buccaneers by 9–1621.1%
Buccaneers by 1–817.1%
Level after regulation2.0%
Jets by 1–86.6%
Jets by 9–162.9%
Jets by 17+0.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jets by 0.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 39 yds made · 87% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 51 yds made · 67% expected
  • R. Succop, 27 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 95%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:22 The Jets converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
2 Q2 5:51 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +7% TB TB: Punt
3 Q2 3:15 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +7% NYJ TB: Punt
4 Q3 0:33 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +7% TB TB: Touchdown
5 Q4 7:43 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% NYJ TB: Field goal
6 Q4 2:17 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +11% TB NYJ: Turnover
7 Q4 0:15 The Buccaneers’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +9% TB –
8 Q4 0:03 The Jets fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% TB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike White (NYJ QB), out, replaced by z.wilson · 0.9 pts
  • Corey Davis (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Jamison Crowder (NYJ WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Elijah Moore (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Quinnen Williams (NYJ NT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Connor McGovern (NYJ C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ryan Griffin (NYJ TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Shaq Lawson (NYJ DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tyler Kroft (NYJ TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Chris Godwin (TB WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Jason Pierre-Paul (TB DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Lavonte David (TB LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Leonard Fournette (TB RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Shaquil Barrett (TB LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Bradley Pinion (TB P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 59% · Jets 41%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 4
Luck in points
4.3 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 89% · Jets 11% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2021 games · Buccaneers · Jets

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