luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2021 NFL season · January 2, 2022–January 3

Week 17 2021: who deserved to win

2 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Bengals beat the Chiefs 34–31 in a game they win 17% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 17 2021 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Raiders 23–20 @ Colts 26% 47% Coin flip
Cardinals 25–22 @ Cowboys 32% 77% Deserved
Bengals 34–31 vs Chiefs 40% 17% Lucky
Steelers 26–14 vs Browns 47% 34% Lucky

Week 17 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bengals W 34–31 vs Chiefs 17% +83
2 Steelers W 26–14 vs Browns 34% +66
3 Raiders W 23–20 @ Colts 47% +53
4 Chargers W 34–13 vs Broncos 57% +43
5 Eagles W 20–16 @ Washington 58% +42
6 Bills W 29–15 vs Falcons 72% +28
7 Cardinals W 25–22 @ Cowboys 77% +23
8 Saints W 18–10 vs Panthers 81% +19
9 Rams W 20–19 @ Ravens 82% +18
10 Seahawks W 51–29 vs Lions 86% +14
11 Titans W 34–3 vs Dolphins 88% +12
12 Buccaneers W 28–24 @ Jets 89% +11
13 Bears W 29–3 vs Giants 90% +10
14 Patriots W 50–10 vs Jaguars 96% +4
15 Packers W 37–10 vs Vikings 98% +2
16 49ers W 23–7 vs Texans 99% +1
17 Texans L 7–23 @ 49ers 1% −1
18 Vikings L 10–37 @ Packers 2% −2
19 Jaguars L 10–50 @ Patriots 4% −4
20 Giants L 3–29 @ Bears 10% −10
21 Jets L 24–28 vs Buccaneers 11% −11
22 Dolphins L 3–34 @ Titans 12% −12
23 Lions L 29–51 @ Seahawks 14% −14
24 Ravens L 19–20 vs Rams 18% −18
25 Panthers L 10–18 @ Saints 19% −19
26 Cowboys L 22–25 vs Cardinals 23% −23
27 Falcons L 15–29 @ Bills 28% −28
28 Washington L 16–20 vs Eagles 42% −42
29 Broncos L 13–34 @ Chargers 43% −43
30 Colts L 20–23 vs Raiders 53% −53
31 Browns L 14–26 @ Steelers 66% −66
32 Chiefs L 31–34 @ Bengals 83% −83