2021 season · final
Houston Texans, 2021: game by game
The Texans went 4–13 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 3.3 wins. Luck added 0.7: the 7th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–4.
Every game
How often the Texans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Jaguars | W 37–21 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 2 | @ Browns | L 21–31 | 22% | −22 |
| Week 3 | vs Panthers | L 9–24 | 24% | −24 |
| Week 4 | @ Bills | L 0–40 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 5 | vs Patriots | L 22–25 | 25% | −25 |
| Week 6 | @ Colts | L 3–31 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 7 | @ Cardinals | L 5–31 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 8 | vs Rams | L 22–38 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 9 | @ Dolphins | L 9–17 | 41% | −41 |
| Week 11 | @ Titans | W 22–13 | 11% | +89 |
| Week 12 | vs Jets | L 14–21 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 13 | vs Colts | L 0–31 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 14 | vs Seahawks | L 13–33 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 15 | @ Jaguars | W 30–16 | 31% | +69 |
| Week 16 | vs Chargers | W 41–29 | 23% | +77 |
| Week 17 | @ 49ers | L 7–23 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 18 | vs Titans | L 25–28 | 26% | −26 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Texans’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.14 | −3.1 |
| Rest | +0.02 | +1.0 |
| Judgment calls | −0.04 | −4.0 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.06 | −4.3 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.19 | −8.0 |
| Injuries | −0.75 | −38.6 |