luckadjusted

Week 2 2021 · September 19, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Texans at Browns, Week 2 2021: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Texans 31–21 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 2.1 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Browns were 84% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 15:00 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Greg Newsome II), 27 yards, worth 10 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 21
Cleveland Browns 31

September 19, 2021 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −13.5

Luck index +23 Browns about even · −23 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 2, Browns win 8.

  1. 1 HOU 20 CLE 7
  2. 2 HOU 28 CLE 24
  3. 3 HOU 10 CLE 13
  4. 4 HOU 19 CLE 24
  5. 5 HOU 14 CLE 21
  6. 6 HOU 10 CLE 20
  7. 7 HOU 20 CLE 33
  8. 8 HOU 26 CLE 44
  9. 9 HOU 10 CLE 31
  10. 10 HOU 13 CLE 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 22% of them, Browns 78%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+3.1%
Texans by 9–165.8%
Texans by 1–813.1%
Level after regulation4.1%
Browns by 1–825.7%
Browns by 9–1622.8%
Browns by 17+25.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Browns by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 1.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Slye, 41 yds blocked · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:06 The Texans fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% CLE HOU: Touchdown
2 Q2 9:54 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% HOU CLE: Touchdown
3 Q2 7:14 The Texans converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +9% HOU HOU: Touchdown
4 Q2 1:20 The Browns converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +8% CLE CLE: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:09 The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% CLE CLE: Touchdown
6 Q3 11:06 Face Mask on the Texans (Christian Kirksey), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 838 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +8% CLE CLE: Touchdown
7 Q3 6:27 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% CLE HOU: Touchdown
8 Q4 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Greg Newsome II), 27 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 69 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +10% HOU HOU: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Deshaun Watson (HOU QB), out, replaced by d.mills · 8.3 pts
  • Ka'imi Fairbairn (HOU K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 7% · Browns 93%

Final margin
Browns by 10
Luck in points
8.7 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 1.3
Replay with same day's form
Texans 22% · Browns 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2021 games · Texans · Browns

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