luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2021 · September 19, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Texans at Browns, Week 2 2021: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Texans 31–21, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Browns were 84% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 15:00 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Greg Newsome II), 27 yards, worth 10 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 21
Cleveland Browns 31

September 19, 2021 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −13.5

Luck index +22 Browns about even · −22 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 2, Browns win 8.

  1. 1 HOU 28 CLE 17
  2. 2 HOU 16 CLE 13
  3. 3 HOU 17 CLE 19
  4. 4 HOU 17 CLE 22
  5. 5 HOU 21 CLE 30
  6. 6 HOU 31 CLE 41
  7. 7 HOU 13 CLE 26
  8. 8 HOU 14 CLE 30
  9. 9 HOU 7 CLE 27
  10. 10 HOU 10 CLE 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 22% of them, Browns 78%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+2.0%
Texans by 9–165.9%
Texans by 1–812.2%
Level after regulation2.6%
Browns by 1–826.9%
Browns by 9–1621.3%
Browns by 17+29.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.8 points to the Browns: the final margin was Browns by 10, without the luck Browns by 2.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Slye, 41 yds blocked · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 9 for 78 yards, Browns 5 for 62 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:52 Defensive Offside on the Texans (Charles Omenihu), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.5 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.7 pts
Q2 0:30 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +3% CLE +0.5 pts
Q3 13:42 Illegal Formation on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.8 pts
Q3 11:06 Face Mask on the Texans (Christian Kirksey), 15 yards, wiping out the play +8% CLE +1.5 pts
Q3 8:26 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +4% HOU +1.4 pts
Q3 7:50 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Texans (Phillip Lindsay), 8 yards +1% CLE +0.7 pts
Q3 7:50 Defensive Offside on the Texans (Tremon Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.5 pts
Q3 2:30 Taunting on the Texans (Jordan Akins), 15 yards +3% CLE +1.4 pts
Q4 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Greg Newsome II), 27 yards +10% HOU +3.3 pts
Q4 5:52 Defensive Offside on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.5 pts
Q4 3:33 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +2% CLE +0.9 pts
Q4 3:03 Face Mask on the Browns (Malcolm Smith), 15 yards +1% HOU +1.8 pts
Q4 2:15 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Jordan Elliott), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.2 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:06 The Texans fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% CLE HOU: Touchdown
2 Q2 7:14 The Texans converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% HOU HOU: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:20 The Browns converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +6% CLE CLE: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:09 The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% CLE CLE: Touchdown
5 Q3 13:55 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +4% CLE HOU: Punt
6 Q3 11:06 Face Mask on the Texans (Christian Kirksey), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 838 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +8% CLE CLE: Touchdown
7 Q3 1:22 The Texans converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +5% HOU HOU: Touchdown
8 Q4 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Greg Newsome II), 27 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 69 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +10% HOU HOU: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Deshaun Watson (HOU QB), out, replaced by d.mills · 8.3 pts
  • Ka'imi Fairbairn (HOU K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 5% · Browns 95%

Final margin
Browns by 10
Luck in points
7.8 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 2.2
Replay with same day's form
Texans 22% · Browns 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2021 games · Texans · Browns

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