luckadjusted

Week 2 2021 · September 19, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Seahawks, Week 2 2021: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Seahawks 33–30 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Seahawks had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 1.8 points to the Seahawks.

An off day for the Seahawks: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Titans they would win 66% of the time; with this day’s form, 35%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 8:08 left): the Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 18 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final (OT)

Tennessee Titans 33
Seattle Seahawks 30

September 19, 2021 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −6.5

Luck index +35 Titans lucky · −35 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 7, Seahawks win 3.

  1. 1 TEN 66 SEA 37
  2. 2 TEN 45 SEA 24
  3. 3 TEN 34 SEA 18
  4. 4 TEN 46 SEA 34
  5. 5 TEN 35 SEA 27
  6. 6 TEN 26 SEA 21
  7. 7 TEN 33 SEA 31
  8. 8 TEN 42 SEA 45
  9. 9 TEN 30 SEA 40
  10. 10 TEN 23 SEA 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Seahawks

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Titans they would win 66% of the time; with this day’s form, 35%.

31 points apart for the Seahawks: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Titans offenseEPA per play gained +0.23 +0.17 better by 0.06
Titans defenseEPA per play allowed +0.15 +0.20 better by 0.05
Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained +0.15 +0.15 better by 0.00
Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed +0.23 +0.10 worse by 0.13

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 65% of them, Seahawks 35%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+25.1%
Titans by 9–1618.3%
Titans by 1–821.6%
Level after regulation3.3%
Seahawks by 1–815.6%
Seahawks by 9–169.4%
Seahawks by 17+6.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Titans by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 4.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • R. Bullock, 33 yds made · 93% expected
  • R. Bullock, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • R. Bullock, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Bullock, 44 yds missed · 78% expected
  • R. Bullock, 36 yds made · 90% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 96%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 14:54 Roughing the Kicker on the Titans (Nick Westbrook-Ikhine), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 381 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +11% SEA SEA: Punt
2 Q4 13:16 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% SEA SEA: Touchdown
3 Q4 0:10 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +11% SEA SEA: End of game
4 QOT 8:42 Roughing the Passer on the Seahawks (Jamal Adams), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1953 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +17% TEN TEN: Punt
5 QOT 8:30 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +9% SEA TEN: Punt
6 QOT 8:08 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +18% TEN SEA: Punt
7 QOT 5:27 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +9% TEN TEN: Field goal
8 QOT 4:50 R. Bullock made 36-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him +9% TEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cedric Ogbuehi (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ethan Pocic (SEA G/C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 78% · Seahawks 22%

Final margin
Titans by 3
Luck in points
1.2 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 4.2
Replay with same day's form
Titans 65% · Seahawks 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2021 games · Titans · Seahawks

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