luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2021 NFL season · September 16, 2021–September 20

Week 2 2021: who deserved to win

2 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Bears beat the Bengals 20–17 in a game they win 32% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 2 2021 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 5 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Titans 33–30 @ Seahawks 32% 68% Deserved
Raiders 26–17 @ Steelers 34% 79% Deserved
Ravens 36–35 vs Chiefs 40% 71% Deserved
Panthers 26–7 vs Saints 41% 80% Deserved
Cowboys 20–17 @ Chargers 41% 62% Deserved

Week 2 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Rams W 27–24 @ Colts 31% +69
2 Bears W 20–17 vs Bengals 32% +68
3 49ers W 17–11 @ Eagles 49% +51
4 Washington W 30–29 vs Giants 61% +39
5 Cowboys W 20–17 @ Chargers 62% +38
6 Titans W 33–30 @ Seahawks 68% +32
7 Ravens W 36–35 vs Chiefs 71% +29
8 Cardinals W 34–33 vs Vikings 72% +28
9 Patriots W 25–6 @ Jets 74% +26
10 Browns W 31–21 vs Texans 78% +22
11 Raiders W 26–17 @ Steelers 79% +21
12 Panthers W 26–7 vs Saints 80% +20
13 Buccaneers W 48–25 vs Falcons 86% +14
14 Broncos W 23–13 @ Jaguars 88% +12
15 Packers W 35–17 vs Lions 92% +8
16 Bills W 35–0 @ Dolphins 95% +5
17 Dolphins L 0–35 vs Bills 5% −5
18 Lions L 17–35 @ Packers 8% −8
19 Jaguars L 13–23 vs Broncos 12% −12
20 Falcons L 25–48 @ Buccaneers 14% −14
21 Saints L 7–26 @ Panthers 20% −20
22 Steelers L 17–26 vs Raiders 21% −21
23 Texans L 21–31 @ Browns 22% −22
24 Jets L 6–25 vs Patriots 26% −26
25 Vikings L 33–34 @ Cardinals 28% −28
26 Chiefs L 35–36 @ Ravens 29% −29
27 Seahawks L 30–33 vs Titans 32% −32
28 Chargers L 17–20 vs Cowboys 38% −38
29 Giants L 29–30 @ Washington 39% −39
30 Eagles L 11–17 vs 49ers 51% −51
31 Bengals L 17–20 @ Bears 68% −68
32 Colts L 24–27 vs Rams 69% −69