2021 season · final
New England Patriots, 2021: game by game
The Patriots went 10–7 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 14th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–3.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.0.
Every game
How often the Patriots win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Dolphins | L 16–17 | 22% | −22 |
| Week 2 | @ Jets | W 25–6 | 74% | +26 |
| Week 3 | vs Saints | L 13–28 | 16% | −16 |
| Week 4 | vs Buccaneers | L 17–19 | 22% | −22 |
| Week 5 | @ Texans | W 25–22 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 6 | vs Cowboys | L 29–35 | 20% | −20 |
| Week 7 | vs Jets | W 54–13 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 8 | @ Chargers | W 27–24 | 25% | +75 |
| Week 9 | @ Panthers | W 24–6 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 10 | vs Browns | W 45–7 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 11 | @ Falcons | W 25–0 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 12 | vs Titans | W 36–13 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 13 | @ Bills | W 14–10 | 52% | +48 |
| Week 15 | @ Colts | L 17–27 | 25% | −25 |
| Week 16 | vs Bills | L 21–33 | 23% | −23 |
| Week 17 | vs Jaguars | W 50–10 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 18 | @ Dolphins | L 24–33 | 73% | −73 |
| Wild Card | @ Bills | L 17–47 | 4% | −4 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Patriots’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.44 | +4.6 |
| Injuries | +0.41 | +18.6 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.28 | +11.2 |
| Kicks | +0.22 | +32.8 |
| Rest | −0.08 | −3.0 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.29 | +1.6 |