2021 season · final
New England Patriots, 2021: game by game
The Patriots went 10–7 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 13th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–3.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.1.
Every game
How often the Patriots win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Dolphins | L 16–17 | 22% | −22 |
| Week 2 | @ Jets | W 25–6 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 3 | vs Saints | L 13–28 | 17% | −17 |
| Week 4 | vs Buccaneers | L 17–19 | 23% | −23 |
| Week 5 | @ Texans | W 25–22 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 6 | vs Cowboys | L 29–35 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 7 | vs Jets | W 54–13 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 8 | @ Chargers | W 27–24 | 24% | +76 |
| Week 9 | @ Panthers | W 24–6 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 10 | vs Browns | W 45–7 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 11 | @ Falcons | W 25–0 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 12 | vs Titans | W 36–13 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 13 | @ Bills | W 14–10 | 53% | +47 |
| Week 15 | @ Colts | L 17–27 | 25% | −25 |
| Week 16 | vs Bills | L 21–33 | 22% | −22 |
| Week 17 | vs Jaguars | W 50–10 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 18 | @ Dolphins | L 24–33 | 72% | −72 |
| Wild Card | @ Bills | L 17–47 | 6% | −6 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Patriots’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +33.5 | +1.97 |
| Injuries | +24.8 | +1.46 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +12.0 | +0.70 |
| Judgment calls | +10.3 | +0.60 |
| Fumble bounces | +1.6 | +0.09 |
| Rest | −3.0 | −0.17 |