luckadjusted

Week 9 2021 · November 7, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Patriots at Panthers, Week 9 2021: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Panthers 24–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 8 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 4.2 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:12 left): Return touchdown by the Patriots, worth 23 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New England Patriots 24
Carolina Panthers 6

November 7, 2021 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −3.5

Luck index +18 Patriots about even · −18 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 8, Panthers win 2.

  1. 1 NE 33 CAR 6
  2. 2 NE 20 CAR 0
  3. 3 NE 20 CAR 3
  4. 4 NE 17 CAR 3
  5. 5 NE 16 CAR 6
  6. 6 NE 17 CAR 10
  7. 7 NE 21 CAR 17
  8. 8 NE 12 CAR 10
  9. 9 NE 13 CAR 17
  10. 10 NE 14 CAR 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 82% of them, Panthers 18%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+35.1%
Patriots by 9–1622.4%
Patriots by 1–824.4%
Level after regulation1.3%
Panthers by 1–811.5%
Panthers by 9–164.2%
Panthers by 17+1.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 18. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 15.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 39 yds made · 85% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 49 yds made · 66% expected
  • N. Folk, 37 yds made · 89% expected
  • N. Folk, 54 yds missed · 60% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:43 The Patriots converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% NE NE: Punt
2 Q1 2:12 The Patriots fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% NE NE: Turnover
3 Q1 0:39 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedThe Patriots fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +21% CAR NE: Touchdown
4 Q2 8:56 The Patriots converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +7% NE NE: Touchdown
5 Q2 3:14 The Patriots converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +9% NE NE: Touchdown
6 Q2 1:22 The Patriots converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +5% NE NE: Touchdown
7 Q2 0:29 The Patriots converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +11% NE NE: Touchdown
8 Q3 7:12 Return touchdown by the PatriotsSpecial teams +23% NE NE: Opp touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • John Miller (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Juston Burris (CAR SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Pat Elflein (CAR G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Joseph Charlton (CAR P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jonathan Jones (NE CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 100% · Panthers 0%

Final margin
Patriots by 18
Luck in points
2.3 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 15.7
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 82% · Panthers 18% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2021 games · Patriots · Panthers

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