luckadjusted

Week 9 2021 · November 7, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Raiders at Giants, Week 9 2021: who deserved to win?

The Giants stole one. They beat the Raiders 23–16, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 4.0 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 13:38 left): the Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 7, worth 45 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 16
New York Giants 23

November 7, 2021 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −3

Luck index +87 Giants very lucky · −87 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 9, Giants win 1.

  1. 1 LV 34 NYG 3
  2. 2 LV 30 NYG 7
  3. 3 LV 35 NYG 17
  4. 4 LV 21 NYG 6
  5. 5 LV 34 NYG 21
  6. 6 LV 23 NYG 13
  7. 7 LV 25 NYG 17
  8. 8 LV 24 NYG 19
  9. 9 LV 28 NYG 26
  10. 10 LV 17 NYG 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 87% of them, Giants 13%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+40.7%
Raiders by 9–1625.4%
Raiders by 1–820.1%
Level after regulation1.8%
Giants by 1–88.6%
Giants by 9–162.9%
Giants by 17+0.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Giants by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Giants by 3.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Gano, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • D. Carlson, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • D. Carlson, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Gano, 32 yds made · 97% expected
  • D. Carlson, 25 yds missed · 98% expected
  • G. Gano, 38 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 13:38 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedReturn touchdown by the GiantsSpecial teams +45% NYG LV: Field goal
2 Q3 8:29 The Raiders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +10% LV LV: Field goal
3 Q3 7:51 Illegal Formation on the Raiders, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +13% NYG NYG: Field goal
4 Q3 5:24 D. Carlson made 25-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +10% NYG LV: Missed field goal
5 Q4 12:44 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders, 15 yardsJudgment calls +9% NYG NYG: Punt
6 Q4 9:31 D. Carlson missed 25-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +17% NYG LV: Turnover
7 Q4 6:21 The Raiders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% LV LV: Turnover
8 Q4 0:44 The Raiders fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% NYG –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Andrew Thomas (NYG T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Saquon Barkley (NYG RB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Blake Martinez (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jabrill Peppers (NYG SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Lorenzo Carter (NYG LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Nick Gates (NYG C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Trayvon Mullen (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 55% · Giants 45%

Final margin
Giants by 7
Luck in points
3.5 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 3.5
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 87% · Giants 13% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2021 games · Raiders · Giants

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