luckadjusted

Week 9 2021 · November 7, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Bengals, Week 9 2021: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Bengals 41–16 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Bengals had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 5.0 points to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:58 left): the Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 3, worth 71 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 41
Cincinnati Bengals 16

November 7, 2021 · Paul Brown Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −2.5

Luck index +37 Browns lucky · −37 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 6, Bengals win 4.

  1. 1 CLE 34 CIN 7
  2. 2 CLE 30 CIN 13
  3. 3 CLE 34 CIN 22
  4. 4 CLE 30 CIN 21
  5. 5 CLE 40 CIN 34
  6. 6 CLE 26 CIN 24
  7. 7 CLE 23 CIN 26
  8. 8 CLE 33 CIN 40
  9. 9 CLE 20 CIN 33
  10. 10 CLE 10 CIN 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 63% of them, Bengals 37%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 25.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+19.8%
Browns by 9–1620.1%
Browns by 1–822.3%
Level after regulation2.5%
Bengals by 1–818.4%
Bengals by 9–1610.1%
Bengals by 17+6.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Browns by 25. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 31.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • E. McPherson, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 45 yds missed · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 68%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:49 The Bengals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% CIN CIN: Opp touchdown
2 Q1 9:25 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Malik McDowell), 4 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 4 flags in 355 snaps before, position avg 1 per 273 +5% CIN CIN: Opp touchdown
3 Q1 8:58 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedReturn touchdown by the BrownsSpecial teams +71% CLE CIN: Touchdown
4 Q1 5:41 The Bengals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +6% CIN CIN: Touchdown
5 Q2 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Ricardo Allen), 6 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1690 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +6% CLE CLE: Touchdown
6 Q2 10:28 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +6% CLE CIN: Turnover on downs
7 Q2 3:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% CIN CIN: Field goal
8 Q3 14:21 The Browns converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +4% CLE CLE: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trae Waynes (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Xavier Su'a-Filo (CIN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jack Conklin (CLE T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 100% · Bengals 0%

Final margin
Browns by 25
Luck in points
6.9 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 31.9
Replay with same day's form
Browns 63% · Bengals 37% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2021 games · Browns · Bengals

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