luckadjusted

Week 9 2021 · November 7, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chargers at Eagles, Week 9 2021: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Eagles 27–24 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Eagles had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.3 points to the Eagles.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:48 left): the Chargers converted 4th & 1, worth 20 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 27
Philadelphia Eagles 24

November 7, 2021 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Chargers −1

Luck index +21 Chargers about even · −21 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 8, Eagles win 2.

  1. 1 LAC 37 PHI 10
  2. 2 LAC 35 PHI 17
  3. 3 LAC 34 PHI 20
  4. 4 LAC 34 PHI 23
  5. 5 LAC 24 PHI 16
  6. 6 LAC 20 PHI 14
  7. 7 LAC 21 PHI 17
  8. 8 LAC 23 PHI 21
  9. 9 LAC 10 PHI 13
  10. 10 LAC 10 PHI 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 79% of them, Eagles 21%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+23.0%
Chargers by 9–1624.3%
Chargers by 1–828.1%
Level after regulation4.3%
Eagles by 1–813.9%
Eagles by 9–164.3%
Eagles by 17+2.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chargers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chargers by 9.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:46 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +12% PHI LAC: Touchdown
2 Q2 11:25 The Eagles converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +10% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q2 10:14 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% PHI PHI: Field goal
4 Q2 7:30 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +10% PHI LAC: End of half
5 Q3 3:43 The Eagles converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +10% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q4 15:00 The Chargers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +13% LAC LAC: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:48 The Chargers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +20% LAC LAC: Field goal
8 Q4 1:45 The Chargers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +15% LAC LAC: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandon Brooks (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Miles Sanders (PHI RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Michael Davis (LAC CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Kenneth Murray (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Oday Aboushi (LAC G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 96% · Eagles 4%

Final margin
Chargers by 3
Luck in points
6.8 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 9.8
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 79% · Eagles 21% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2021 games · Chargers · Eagles

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