2021 season · final
Los Angeles Chargers, 2021: game by game
The Chargers went 9–8 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.7 wins. Luck cost them 1.7: the 4th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–5.
Every game
How often the Chargers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Washington | W 20–16 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 2 | vs Cowboys | L 17–20 | 38% | −38 |
| Week 3 | @ Chiefs | W 30–24 | 33% | +67 |
| Week 4 | vs Raiders | W 28–14 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 5 | vs Browns | W 47–42 | 50% | +50 |
| Week 6 | @ Ravens | L 6–34 | 30% | −30 |
| Week 8 | vs Patriots | L 24–27 | 75% | −75 |
| Week 9 | @ Eagles | W 27–24 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 10 | vs Vikings | L 20–27 | 77% | −77 |
| Week 11 | vs Steelers | W 41–37 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 12 | @ Broncos | L 13–28 | 64% | −64 |
| Week 13 | @ Bengals | W 41–22 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 14 | vs Giants | W 37–21 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 15 | vs Chiefs | L 28–34 | 25% | −25 |
| Week 16 | @ Texans | L 29–41 | 77% | −77 |
| Week 17 | vs Broncos | W 34–13 | 57% | +43 |
| Week 18 | @ Raiders | L 32–35 | 40% | −40 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Chargers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +0.51 | +19.6 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.19 | −7.5 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.18 | +5.9 |
| Judgment calls | −0.38 | −13.2 |
| Kicks | −1.09 | −15.0 |