luckadjusted

Week 16 2021 · December 26, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chargers at Texans, Week 16 2021: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Chargers 41–29, but the Chargers played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 84% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:12 left): the Chargers converted 3rd & 11, worth 9 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 29
Houston Texans 41

December 26, 2021 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −13.5

Luck index +76 Texans very lucky · −76 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 8, Texans win 2.

  1. 1 LAC 38 HOU 10
  2. 2 LAC 45 HOU 23
  3. 3 LAC 38 HOU 20
  4. 4 LAC 31 HOU 17
  5. 5 LAC 17 HOU 6
  6. 6 LAC 24 HOU 17
  7. 7 LAC 26 HOU 21
  8. 8 LAC 27 HOU 24
  9. 9 LAC 30 HOU 34
  10. 10 LAC 31 HOU 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 76% of them, Texans 24%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+28.4%
Chargers by 9–1619.9%
Chargers by 1–826.6%
Level after regulation2.6%
Texans by 1–813.1%
Texans by 9–166.8%
Texans by 17+2.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 12. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 17.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 50 yds made · 74% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 46 yds made · 80% expected
  • D. Eberle, 51 yds made · 73% expected
  • D. Eberle, 52 yds missed · 72% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • D. Eberle, 25 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:10 The Texans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% HOU HOU: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:26 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Asante Samuel Jr.), 24 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 544 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +6% HOU HOU: Touchdown
3 Q2 12:00 The Chargers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% LAC LAC: Touchdown
4 Q3 11:12 D. Eberle missed 52-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before +7% LAC HOU: Touchdown
5 Q3 10:12 The Chargers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% LAC LAC: Field goal
6 Q3 3:42 The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% HOU HOU: Touchdown
7 Q3 2:09 The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +7% HOU HOU: Touchdown
8 Q4 5:54 The Chargers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +6% LAC LAC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandin Cooks (HOU WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Tytus Howard (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jonathan Greenard (HOU DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Justin Britt (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Terrance Mitchell (HOU CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Maliek Collins (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ka'imi Fairbairn (HOU K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Lane Taylor (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Eric Murray (HOU FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kamu Grugier-Hill (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Mike Williams (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Corey Linsley (LAC C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Derwin James (LAC FS), out · 0.7 pts
  • Tevaughn Campbell (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Joey Bosa (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jalen Guyton (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Justin Jones (LAC DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Ekeler (LAC RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 0% · Texans 100%

Final margin
Texans by 12
Luck in points
5.1 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 17.1
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 76% · Texans 24% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2021 games · Chargers · Texans

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