luckadjusted

Week 16 2021 · December 26, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Giants at Eagles, Week 16 2021: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Giants 34–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 4.7 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 79% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:11 left): J. Elliott missed 41-yard field goal, worth 10 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 10
Philadelphia Eagles 34

December 26, 2021 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −11

Luck index +5 Eagles about even · −5 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 1, Eagles win 9.

  1. 1 NYG 16 PHI 9
  2. 2 NYG 22 PHI 25
  3. 3 NYG 17 PHI 23
  4. 4 NYG 7 PHI 16
  5. 5 NYG 13 PHI 25
  6. 6 NYG 6 PHI 20
  7. 7 NYG 6 PHI 23
  8. 8 NYG 10 PHI 30
  9. 9 NYG 7 PHI 31
  10. 10 NYG 3 PHI 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 5% of them, Eagles 95%. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+0.3%
Giants by 9–161.2%
Giants by 1–83.5%
Level after regulation0.4%
Eagles by 1–814.1%
Eagles by 9–1620.4%
Eagles by 17+60.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 24. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 30.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 54 yds made · 66% expected
  • J. Elliott, 41 yds missed · 85% expected
  • J. Elliott, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Elliott, 37 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:09 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +5% NYG PHI: Punt
2 Q1 9:35 The Giants converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expectedNeutral Zone Infraction on the Eagles (Fletcher Cox), 4 yardsPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 2281 snaps before, position avg 1 per 273 +6% NYG NYG: Punt
3 Q1 0:46 The Giants converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% NYG NYG: Field goal
4 Q2 14:11 The Giants converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +5% NYG NYG: Field goal
5 Q2 10:12 The Eagles converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +8% PHI PHI: Missed field goal
6 Q2 8:27 Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (DeVonta Smith), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 791 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399Neutral Zone Infraction on the Giants (Julian Love), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 1 flag in 2236 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +7% NYG NYG: Punt
7 Q2 7:11 J. Elliott missed 41-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +10% NYG PHI: Field goal
8 Q2 2:12 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% NYG PHI: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jack Driscoll (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Davion Taylor (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Daniel Jones (NYG QB), out (IR), replaced by m.glennon · 1.9 pts
  • Nate Solder (NYG T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Adoree' Jackson (NYG CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 0% · Eagles 100%

Final margin
Eagles by 24
Luck in points
6.4 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 30.4
Replay with same day's form
Giants 5% · Eagles 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2021 games · Giants · Eagles

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