luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2021 · December 26, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jaguars at Jets, Week 16 2021: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Jaguars 26–21, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Jets win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Jets were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:12 left): the Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 33 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 21
New York Jets 26

December 26, 2021 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Jets −2.5

Luck index +46 Jets lucky · −46 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 5, Jets win 5.

  1. 1 JAX 31 NYJ 12
  2. 2 JAX 27 NYJ 13
  3. 3 JAX 16 NYJ 6
  4. 4 JAX 23 NYJ 16
  5. 5 JAX 17 NYJ 14
  6. 6 JAX 17 NYJ 20
  7. 7 JAX 18 NYJ 24
  8. 8 JAX 10 NYJ 20
  9. 9 JAX 24 NYJ 40
  10. 10 JAX 7 NYJ 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 46% of them, Jets 54%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+8.4%
Jaguars by 9–1613.8%
Jaguars by 1–822.4%
Level after regulation7.0%
Jets by 1–824.0%
Jets by 9–1614.2%
Jets by 17+10.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.7 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Jets by 5, without the luck Jets by 12.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Wright, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Wright, 45 yds made · 84% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 42 yds made · 87% expected
  • M. Wright, 40 yds made · 90% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 20 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 2 for 10 yards, Jets 7 for 81 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets, 35 yards +8% JAX +2.6 pts
Q1 8:12 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jets (Trevon Wesco), 10 yards +2% JAX +0.8 pts
Q2 13:08 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (Nathan Shepherd), 1 yard · pre-snap 0% NYJ 0.0 pts
Q2 6:39 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (Nathan Shepherd), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.3 pts
Q3 1:24 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +8% NYJ +0.7 pts
Q3 0:25 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards +1% JAX +0.9 pts
Q4 7:46 Delay of Game on the Jaguars (James O'Shaughnessy), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.4 pts
Q4 5:32 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (C.J. Mosley), 15 yards +8% JAX +1.6 pts
Q4 1:54 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +1.6 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 41% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets, 35 yardsJudgment calls +8% JAX JAX: Field goal
2 Q2 13:08 The Jaguars’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedNeutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (Nathan Shepherd), 1 yardPre-snap flags · 8 flags in 1215 snaps before, position avg 1 per 273Return touchdown by the JetsSpecial teams +23% NYJ JAX: Field goal
3 Q2 0:16 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +11% JAX NYJ: Field goal
4 Q3 7:15 The Jaguars fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% NYJ JAX: Field goal
5 Q4 5:32 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (C.J. Mosley), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1069 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +8% JAX JAX: Touchdown
6 Q4 5:25 The Jaguars’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +9% NYJ JAX: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 3:04 The Jets converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +12% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
8 Q4 0:12 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +33% NYJ –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Flacco (NYJ QB), out (IR), replaced by z.wilson · 1.5 pts
  • Corey Davis (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Jamison Crowder (NYJ WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • John Franklin-Myers (NYJ DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Elijah Riley (NYJ DB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Quinnen Williams (NYJ NT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NYJ FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Elijah Moore (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ryan Griffin (NYJ TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ashtyn Davis (NYJ SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Folorunso Fatukasi (NYJ DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Myles Jack (JAX LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Rayshawn Jenkins (JAX SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ben Bartch (JAX T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jamal Agnew (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dan Arnold (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 3% · Jets 97%

Final margin
Jets by 5
Luck in points
7.7 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 12.7
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 46% · Jets 54% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2021 games · Jaguars · Jets

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