luckadjusted

Week 16 2021 · December 26, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Lions at Falcons, Week 16 2021: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Lions 20–16, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Falcons win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 7.7 points to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:28 left): the Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 7, worth 24 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Detroit Lions 16
Atlanta Falcons 20

December 26, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −7.5

Luck index +40 Falcons lucky · −40 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 4, Falcons win 6.

  1. 1 DET 19 ATL 0
  2. 2 DET 23 ATL 13
  3. 3 DET 12 ATL 7
  4. 4 DET 16 ATL 13
  5. 5 DET 14 ATL 17
  6. 6 DET 16 ATL 20
  7. 7 DET 10 ATL 17
  8. 8 DET 10 ATL 20
  9. 9 DET 6 ATL 21
  10. 10 DET 3 ATL 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 40% of them, Falcons 60%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+3.8%
Lions by 9–1612.4%
Lions by 1–822.0%
Level after regulation2.2%
Falcons by 1–832.6%
Falcons by 9–1616.7%
Falcons by 17+10.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Falcons by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 0.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • Y. Koo, 53 yds made · 69% expected
  • Y. Koo, 48 yds made · 78% expected
  • R. Patterson, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • R. Patterson, 26 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 5:31 The Lions converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedFalse Start on the Lions, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +12% DET DET: Touchdown
2 Q2 3:54 The Lions converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +10% DET DET: Touchdown
3 Q3 6:18 The Lions converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +11% DET DET: Field goal
4 Q4 7:48 The Lions converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +10% DET DET: Field goal
5 Q4 5:32 The Lions converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +9% DET DET: Field goal
6 Q4 3:17 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +12% ATL DET: Field goal
7 Q4 2:28 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedThe Falcons fumbled and the Lions recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +24% DET ATL: End of game
8 Q4 1:18 The Lions converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +15% DET DET: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Erik Harris (ATL FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tajae Sharpe (ATL WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jared Goff (DET QB), out (IR), replaced by t.boyle · 4.6 pts
  • T.J. Hockenson (DET TE), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Jerry Jacobs (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Trinity Benson (DET WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • D'Andre Swift (DET RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Amani Oruwariye (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Anzalone (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Trey Flowers (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Seibert (DET K), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Julian Okwara (DET LB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 6% · Falcons 94%

Final margin
Falcons by 4
Luck in points
4.5 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Lions 40% · Falcons 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2021 games · Lions · Falcons

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