luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2021 · December 26, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bears at Seahawks, Week 16 2021: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Seahawks 25–24, but the replays lean toward the Seahawks: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 19 points of win probability to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 70% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 2:00 left): the Bears fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 19 points of win probability to the Bears. The biggest single swing (Q4, 1:01 left): the Bears’ two-point try was good.

Final

Chicago Bears 25
Seattle Seahawks 24

December 26, 2021 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −7

Luck index +61 Bears very lucky · −61 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 4, Seahawks win 6.

  1. 1 CHI 31 SEA 14
  2. 2 CHI 34 SEA 23
  3. 3 CHI 26 SEA 20
  4. 4 CHI 31 SEA 29
  5. 5 CHI 12 SEA 14
  6. 6 CHI 16 SEA 21
  7. 7 CHI 10 SEA 18
  8. 8 CHI 25 SEA 37
  9. 9 CHI 9 SEA 26
  10. 10 CHI 13 SEA 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 39% of them, Seahawks 61%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+6.5%
Bears by 9–1612.3%
Bears by 1–819.7%
Level after regulation3.1%
Seahawks by 1–825.3%
Seahawks by 9–1617.4%
Seahawks by 17+15.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.9 points to the Bears: the final margin was Bears by 1, without the luck Seahawks by 3.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 36 yds made · 90% expected
  • C. Santos, 35 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Myers, 39 yds missed · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bears 8 for 73 yards, Seahawks 7 for 88 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:49 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards +3% SEA +0.9 pts
Q1 3:26 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Ugo Amadi), 26 yards +8% CHI +2.2 pts
Q2 14:20 False Start on the Seahawks, 2 yards · pre-snap 0% CHI 0.0 pts
Q2 13:40 Offensive Holding on the Bears (J.P. Holtz), 10 yards +3% SEA +1.5 pts
Q2 5:51 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bears (Angelo Blackson), 5 yards +3% SEA +0.9 pts
Q2 5:14 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears (Teez Tabor), 4 yards +2% SEA +0.7 pts
Q2 2:56 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% SEA +1.6 pts
Q3 10:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (John Reid), 21 yards +2% CHI +1.4 pts
Q4 10:51 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.4 pts
Q4 10:38 Taunting on the Bears (Alec Ogletree), 15 yards +3% SEA +1.4 pts
Q4 3:23 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Colby Parkinson), 10 yards +1% CHI +1.2 pts
Q4 2:56 Roughing the Passer on the Seahawks (Darrell Taylor), 15 yards +7% CHI +1.8 pts
Q4 0:48 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +15% CHI +0.7 pts
Q4 0:31 False Start on the Seahawks (Gerald Everett), 4 yards · pre-snap +4% CHI +0.1 pts
Q4 0:21 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Bears (Bruce Irvin), 14 yards +9% SEA +1.3 pts

Bears penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 95%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:26 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Ugo Amadi), 26 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1791 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +8% CHI CHI: Turnover on downs
2 Q2 3:51 The Bears converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +9% CHI CHI: Punt
3 Q2 2:56 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% SEA SEA: Field goal
4 Q4 2:00 The game turned hereThe Bears fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +19% CHI CHI: Touchdown
5 Q4 1:07 The Bears converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +9% CHI CHI: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:01 The Bears’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +21% CHI CHI: End of game
7 Q4 0:48 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yardsJudgment calls +15% CHI CHI: End of game
8 Q4 0:21 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Bears (Bruce Irvin), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 877 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +8% CHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandon Shell (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jamal Adams (SEA SS), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • D.J. Reed (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Will Dissly (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tre Brown (SEA DB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Andy Dalton (CHI QB), out, replaced by n.foles · 2.5 pts
  • Jaylon Johnson (CHI CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Allen Robinson (CHI WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Jason Peters (CHI T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tashaun Gipson (CHI FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Akiem Hicks (CHI DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • DeAndre Houston-Carson (CHI FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 8% · Seahawks 92%

Final margin
Bears by 1
Luck in points
4.9 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 3.9
Replay with same day's form
Bears 39% · Seahawks 61% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2021 games · Bears · Seahawks

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