2021 season · final

Chicago Bears, 2021: game by game

The Bears went 6–11 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.5 wins. Luck cost them 0.5: the 13th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–3.

Every game

How often the Bears win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Rams	L 14–34	11%	−11
Week 2	vs Bengals	W 20–17	32%	+68
Week 3	@ Browns	L 6–26	4%	−4
Week 4	vs Lions	W 24–14	73%	+27
Week 5	@ Raiders	W 20–9	49%	+51
Week 6	vs Packers	L 14–24	9%	−9
Week 7	@ Buccaneers	L 3–38	1%	−1
Week 8	vs 49ers	L 22–33	4%	−4
Week 9	@ Steelers	L 27–29	66%	−66
Week 11	vs Ravens	L 13–16	37%	−37
Week 12	@ Lions	W 16–14	79%	+21
Week 13	vs Cardinals	L 22–33	44%	−44
Week 14	@ Packers	L 30–45	13%	−13
Week 15	vs Vikings	L 9–17	54%	−54
Week 16	@ Seahawks	W 25–24	39%	+61
Week 17	vs Giants	W 29–3	90%	+10
Week 18	@ Vikings	L 17–31	45%	−45

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −11 @ LA

Wk 2 +68 vs CIN

Wk 3 −4 @ CLE

Wk 4 +27 vs DET

Wk 5 +51 @ LV

Wk 6 −9 vs GB

Wk 7 −1 @ TB

Wk 8 −4 vs SF

Wk 9 −66 @ PIT

Wk 11 −37 vs BAL

Wk 12 +21 @ DET

Wk 13 −44 vs ARI

Wk 14 −13 @ GB

Wk 15 −54 vs MIN

Wk 16 +61 @ SEA

Wk 17 +10 vs NYG

Wk 18 −45 @ MIN

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bears’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	+0.45	+8.0
3rd & 4th downs	+0.07	+1.8
Injuries	+0.04	+1.4
Rest	−0.05	−2.8
Judgment calls	−0.18	−3.8
Kicks	−0.75	−7.0