luckadjusted

Week 14 2021 · December 12, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bears at Packers, Week 14 2021: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Bears 45–30, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 1.8 points to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Packers were 80% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:09 left): Return touchdown by the Packers, worth 57 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Chicago Bears 30
Green Bay Packers 45

December 12, 2021 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −11.5

Luck index +13 Packers about even · −13 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 1, Packers win 9.

  1. 1 CHI 24 GB 16
  2. 2 CHI 24 GB 26
  3. 3 CHI 17 GB 22
  4. 4 CHI 30 GB 37
  5. 5 CHI 13 GB 24
  6. 6 CHI 20 GB 34
  7. 7 CHI 24 GB 41
  8. 8 CHI 7 GB 28
  9. 9 CHI 9 GB 34
  10. 10 CHI 13 GB 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 13% of them, Packers 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+1.4%
Bears by 9–163.5%
Bears by 1–87.0%
Level after regulation1.9%
Packers by 1–817.6%
Packers by 9–1621.3%
Packers by 17+47.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 15. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 10.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Santos, 44 yds made · 77% expected
  • M. Crosby, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Santos, 43 yds made · 79% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 24% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:24 The Bears converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% CHI CHI: Field goal
2 Q1 2:22 The Packers converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +9% GB GB: Punt
3 Q1 0:59 The Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% GB GB: Punt
4 Q2 6:04 The Packers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +12% GB GB: Touchdown
5 Q2 5:09 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedReturn touchdown by the PackersSpecial teams +57% GB CHI: Touchdown
6 Q2 3:30 The Bears converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +20% CHI CHI: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:54 Return touchdown by the BearsSpecial teams +20% CHI CHI: Opp touchdown
8 Q3 8:40 The Bears fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% GB CHI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Randall Cobb (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Elgton Jenkins (GB G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Robert Tonyan (GB TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Andy Dalton (CHI QB), out, replaced by j.fields · 2.5 pts
  • Khalil Mack (CHI LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Duke Shelley (CHI CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 0% · Packers 100%

Final margin
Packers by 15
Luck in points
4.1 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 10.9
Replay with same day's form
Bears 13% · Packers 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2021 games · Bears · Packers

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