Week 14 2021 · December 13, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Rams at Cardinals, Week 14 2021: who deserved to win?
The Rams beat the Cardinals 30–23, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Cardinals.
Before kickoff the Cardinals were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:34 left): Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 21 points of win probability to the Rams.
Final
 Los Angeles Rams | 30 |
|---|---|
 Arizona Cardinals | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Rams lucky · −32 Cardinals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rams win 7, Cardinals win 3.
- 1 LA 34 ARI 8
- 2 LA 33 ARI 14
- 3 LA 24 ARI 10
- 4 LA 34 ARI 24
- 5 LA 13 ARI 6
- 6 LA 24 ARI 20
- 7 LA 25 ARI 23
- 8 LA 17 ARI 20
- 9 LA 30 ARI 38
- 10 LA 21 ARI 38
Your call
Did the Rams earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rams win 68% of them, Cardinals 32%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rams by 17+ | 20.9% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 20.5% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 26.1% |
| Level after regulation | 3.9% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 16.5% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 8.6% |
| Cardinals by 17+ | 3.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Prater, 53 yds made · 64% expected
- M. Gay, 55 yds made · 65% expected
- M. Gay, 35 yds made · 93% expected
- M. Prater, 53 yds made · 64% expected
- M. Gay, 33 yds made · 94% expected
- M. Prater, 49 yds made · 70% expected
Penalties: Rams 5 for 40 yards, Cardinals 7 for 54 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:32 | False Start on the Cardinals (Zach Ertz), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LA +0.5 pts |
| Q1 6:22 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Rams (Von Miller), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARI +0.4 pts |
| Q2 9:48 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Rams, 10 yards | +4% ARI +1.3 pts |
| Q2 0:22 | False Start on the Cardinals (A.J. Green), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LA +0.2 pts |
| Q3 14:16 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Cardinals (Isaiah Simmons), 15 yards | +6% LA +1.4 pts |
| Q3 10:01 | Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Robert Alford), 4 yards | +3% LA +2.0 pts |
| Q3 0:09 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% LA +1.9 pts |
| Q4 12:25 | Offensive Holding on the Rams (Van Jefferson), 10 yards | +4% ARI +1.0 pts |
| Q4 11:15 | Delay of Game on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARI +0.8 pts |
| Q4 10:24 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Van Jefferson), 10 yards | +3% ARI +1.1 pts |
| Q4 0:34 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +21% LA +2.0 pts |
| Q4 0:26 | False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LA +0.2 pts |
Rams penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Cardinals’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:33 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +7% ARI | ARI: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 8:53 | The Rams converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +9% LA | LA: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 3:22 | The Cardinals converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +11% ARI | ARI: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 0:10 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +12% ARI | ARI: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 0:01 | M. Prater made a 53-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 24 of 36 from 45+ before | +7% ARI | ARI: Turnover |
| 6 | Q3 4:44 | The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +8% LA | ARI: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:37 | Onside kick recovered by the CardinalsSpecial teams | +7% ARI | ARI: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 0:34 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +21% LA | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- J.J. Watt (ARI DE), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
- Justin Pugh (ARI G), out · 0.4 pts
- Chase Edmonds (ARI RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Beau Brinkley (ARI LS), out · 0.1 pts
- Jalen Ramsey (LA CB), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
- Robert Woods (LA WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- Rob Havenstein (LA T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- Tyler Higbee (LA TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Donte Deayon (LA CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Brian Allen (LA C), out · 0.3 pts
- Darrell Henderson (LA RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Terrell Lewis (LA LB), out · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rams 90% · Cardinals 10%
- Final margin
- Rams by 7
- Luck in points
- 4.2 for the Cardinals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rams by 11.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Rams 68% · Cardinals 32% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2021 games · 
Rams · 
Cardinals
More from Week 14 2021
- Steelers at Vikings MIN 36–28 · replay 82% for the winner
- Falcons at Panthers ATL 29–21 · replay 65% for the winner
- Ravens at Browns CLE 24–22 · replay 71% for the winner
- Cowboys at Washington DAL 27–20 · replay 79% for the winner
- Jaguars at Titans TEN 20–0 · replay 90% for the winner
- Raiders at Chiefs KC 48–9 · replay 96% for the winner
- Saints at Jets NO 30–9 · replay 61% for the winner
- Seahawks at Texans SEA 33–13 · replay 87% for the winner
- Lions at Broncos DEN 38–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Giants at Chargers LAC 37–21 · replay 91% for the winner
- Bills at Buccaneers TB 33–27 · replay 74% for the winner
- 49ers at Bengals SF 26–23 · replay 38% for the winner
- Bears at Packers GB 45–30 · replay 87% for the winner