luckadjusted

Week 14 2021 · December 12, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Falcons at Panthers, Week 14 2021: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Panthers 29–21 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.4 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Panthers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:47 left): Return touchdown by the Falcons, worth 58 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 29
Carolina Panthers 21

December 12, 2021 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −2.5

Luck index +39 Falcons lucky · −39 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 6, Panthers win 4.

  1. 1 ATL 25 CAR 3
  2. 2 ATL 21 CAR 6
  3. 3 ATL 31 CAR 20
  4. 4 ATL 17 CAR 9
  5. 5 ATL 13 CAR 7
  6. 6 ATL 16 CAR 14
  7. 7 ATL 27 CAR 29
  8. 8 ATL 19 CAR 23
  9. 9 ATL 10 CAR 20
  10. 10 ATL 13 CAR 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 61% of them, Panthers 39%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+14.9%
Falcons by 9–1617.3%
Falcons by 1–827.4%
Level after regulation3.0%
Panthers by 1–820.0%
Panthers by 9–1612.3%
Panthers by 17+5.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Falcons by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Falcons by 8.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • Y. Koo, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • Y. Koo, 48 yds made · 77% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:47 The Falcons converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +7% ATL ATL: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:21 The Falcons converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% ATL ATL: Touchdown
3 Q1 2:57 The Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% CAR CAR: Punt
4 Q2 8:47 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedReturn touchdown by the FalconsSpecial teams +58% ATL CAR: Punt
5 Q2 6:14 The Falcons converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% ATL ATL: Field goal
6 Q3 5:45 The Panthers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +7% CAR CAR: Turnover
7 Q3 4:45 The Panthers fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% ATL CAR: Turnover on downs
8 Q3 3:27 The Falcons converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +7% ATL ATL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Donte Jackson (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Matt Paradis (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Trenton Scott (CAR T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • John Miller (CAR G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Jordan (CAR G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Adetokunbo Ogundeji (ATL LB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 94% · Panthers 6%

Final margin
Falcons by 8
Luck in points
0.8 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 8.8
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 61% · Panthers 39% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2021 games · Falcons · Panthers

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