luckadjusted

Week 14 2021 · December 12, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Washington, Week 14 2021: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat Washington 27–20 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. Washington had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.9 points to Washington.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:32 left): Washington were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 18 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 27
Washington Football Team 20

December 12, 2021 · FedExField · Closing line: Cowboys −6.5

Luck index +22 Cowboys about even · −22 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 8, Washington win 2.

  1. 1 DAL 38 WAS 6
  2. 2 DAL 43 WAS 19
  3. 3 DAL 27 WAS 9
  4. 4 DAL 24 WAS 9
  5. 5 DAL 24 WAS 12
  6. 6 DAL 35 WAS 26
  7. 7 DAL 15 WAS 10
  8. 8 DAL 20 WAS 17
  9. 9 DAL 16 WAS 20
  10. 10 DAL 13 WAS 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 78% of them, Washington 22%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+35.2%
Cowboys by 9–1620.3%
Cowboys by 1–822.5%
Level after regulation1.1%
Washington by 1–811.9%
Washington by 9–166.3%
Washington by 17+2.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Washington by 4.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 35 yds made · 90% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 38 yds made · 86% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 37 yds made · 87% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 29 yds made · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Washington’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Washington were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:11 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +5% DAL DAL: Field goal
2 Q1 5:32 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +18% DAL WAS: Opp touchdown
3 Q1 4:53 The Cowboys fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% DAL DAL: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:45 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedRoughing the Passer on Washington, 1 yardsJudgment calls +7% DAL DAL: Touchdown
5 Q1 0:41 Washington were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expectedWashington fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the CowboysSpecial teams +12% DAL WAS: Punt
6 Q2 12:33 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% WAS WAS: Punt
7 Q4 4:24 Return touchdown by WashingtonSpecial teams +11% WAS WAS: Opp touchdown
8 Q4 2:34 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedWashington fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +17% DAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Montez Sweat (WAS DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Chase Young (WAS DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Chase Roullier (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • James Smith-Williams (WAS DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Joey Slye (WAS K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Wes Schweitzer (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Logan Thomas (WAS TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 46% · Washington 54%

Final margin
Cowboys by 7
Luck in points
11.5 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 4.5
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 78% · Washington 22% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2021 games · Cowboys · Washington

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