2021 season · final

Carolina Panthers, 2021: game by game

The Panthers went 5–12 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 5.9 wins. Luck cost them 0.9: the 9th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–6.

Every game

How often the Panthers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Jets	W 19–14	93%	+7
Week 2	vs Saints	W 26–7	79%	+21
Week 3	@ Texans	W 24–9	75%	+25
Week 4	@ Cowboys	L 28–36	22%	−22
Week 5	vs Eagles	L 18–21	62%	−62
Week 6	vs Vikings	L 28–34	17%	−17
Week 7	@ Giants	L 3–25	4%	−4
Week 8	@ Falcons	W 19–13	32%	+68
Week 9	vs Patriots	L 6–24	18%	−18
Week 10	@ Cardinals	W 34–10	53%	+47
Week 11	vs Washington	L 21–27	32%	−32
Week 12	@ Dolphins	L 10–33	26%	−26
Week 14	vs Falcons	L 21–29	39%	−39
Week 15	@ Bills	L 14–31	17%	−17
Week 16	vs Buccaneers	L 6–32	4%	−4
Week 17	@ Saints	L 10–18	19%	−19
Week 18	@ Buccaneers	L 17–41	1%	−1

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +7 vs NYJ

Wk 2 +21 vs NO

Wk 3 +25 @ HOU

Wk 4 −22 @ DAL

Wk 5 −62 vs PHI

Wk 6 −17 vs MIN

Wk 7 −4 @ NYG

Wk 8 +68 @ ATL

Wk 9 −18 vs NE

Wk 10 +47 @ ARI

Wk 11 −32 vs WAS

Wk 12 −26 @ MIA

Wk 14 −39 vs ATL

Wk 15 −17 @ BUF

Wk 16 −4 vs TB

Wk 17 −19 @ NO

Wk 18 −1 @ TB

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Panthers’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Injuries	+16.6	+0.98
Kicks	+5.1	+0.30
Rest	+2.4	+0.14
3rd & 4th downs	−1.8	−0.11
Fumble bounces	−9.4	−0.56