2021 season · final
Carolina Panthers, 2021: game by game
The Panthers went 5–12 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 5.8 wins. Luck cost them 0.8: the 12th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–6.
Every game
How often the Panthers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Jets | W 19–14 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 2 | vs Saints | W 26–7 | 80% | +20 |
| Week 3 | @ Texans | W 24–9 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 4 | @ Cowboys | L 28–36 | 23% | −23 |
| Week 5 | vs Eagles | L 18–21 | 56% | −56 |
| Week 6 | vs Vikings | L 28–34 | 16% | −16 |
| Week 7 | @ Giants | L 3–25 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 8 | @ Falcons | W 19–13 | 27% | +73 |
| Week 9 | vs Patriots | L 6–24 | 16% | −16 |
| Week 10 | @ Cardinals | W 34–10 | 53% | +47 |
| Week 11 | vs Washington | L 21–27 | 32% | −32 |
| Week 12 | @ Dolphins | L 10–33 | 24% | −24 |
| Week 14 | vs Falcons | L 21–29 | 35% | −35 |
| Week 15 | @ Bills | L 14–31 | 16% | −16 |
| Week 16 | vs Buccaneers | L 6–32 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 17 | @ Saints | L 10–18 | 19% | −19 |
| Week 18 | @ Buccaneers | L 17–41 | 1% | −1 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Panthers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.53 | +5.7 |
| Injuries | +0.29 | +12.3 |
| Rest | +0.07 | +2.4 |
| Judgment calls | −0.10 | −0.8 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.16 | +0.6 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.26 | −12.3 |