luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2021 · November 21, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Panthers, Week 11 2021: who deserved to win?

Washington beat the Panthers 27–21, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Panthers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:23 left): Washington converted 4th & 3, worth 15 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

Washington Football Team 27
Carolina Panthers 21

November 21, 2021 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −3.5

Luck index +32 Washington lucky · −32 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington wins 7, Panthers win 3.

  1. 1 WAS 38 CAR 12
  2. 2 WAS 27 CAR 10
  3. 3 WAS 34 CAR 20
  4. 4 WAS 36 CAR 26
  5. 5 WAS 20 CAR 13
  6. 6 WAS 24 CAR 21
  7. 7 WAS 29 CAR 27
  8. 8 WAS 3 CAR 6
  9. 9 WAS 10 CAR 17
  10. 10 WAS 7 CAR 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington wins 68% of them, Panthers 32%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+20.6%
Washington by 9–1620.8%
Washington by 1–825.8%
Level after regulation4.6%
Panthers by 1–816.5%
Panthers by 9–167.7%
Panthers by 17+4.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.2 points to Washington: the final margin was Washington by 6, without the luck Washington by 0.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Slye, 29 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Washington 8 for 69 yards, Panthers 7 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:29 Horse Collar Tackle on Washington (Cole Holcomb), 15 yards +5% CAR +1.8 pts
Q1 5:17 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Juston Burris), 15 yards +2% WAS +0.9 pts
Q1 2:35 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.9 pts
Q2 8:25 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% WAS +1.7 pts
Q2 6:25 Face Mask on Washington (Kamren Curl), 15 yards +7% CAR +1.8 pts
Q2 1:19 False Start on Washington, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +1.1 pts
Q3 6:20 Defensive Offside on Washington (Khaleke Hudson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.3 pts
Q3 4:12 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.9 pts
Q3 1:09 Delay of Game on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.3 pts
Q3 0:08 Delay of Game on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CAR +0.3 pts
Q4 12:47 Unnecessary Roughness on Washington (Daron Payne), 15 yards +5% CAR +1.8 pts
Q4 10:03 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Juston Burris), 15 yards +7% WAS +1.8 pts
Q4 4:18 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Panthers (Donte Jackson), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% WAS +0.4 pts
Q4 4:13 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +11% WAS +1.5 pts
Q4 2:53 Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Derrick Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% WAS +0.7 pts

Washington penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while Washington was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 1:07 Washington converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +10% WAS WAS: Touchdown
2 Q3 12:53 Washington converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +10% WAS WAS: Touchdown
3 Q3 9:26 Washington converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% WAS WAS: Touchdown
4 Q4 7:23 Washington converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +15% WAS WAS: Field goal
5 Q4 6:38 Washington fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% WAS WAS: Field goal
6 Q4 4:13 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% WAS WAS: Field goal
7 Q4 3:05 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +12% WAS CAR: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:11 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +11% WAS –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cameron Erving (CAR T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Matt Paradis (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Montez Sweat (WAS DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Chase Young (WAS DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Ricky Seals-Jones (WAS TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Chase Roullier (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Benjamin St-Juste (WAS CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Logan Thomas (WAS TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 45% · Panthers 55%

Final margin
Washington by 6
Luck in points
5.2 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 0.8
Replay with same day's form
Washington 68% · Panthers 32% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2021 games · Washington · Panthers

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