luckadjusted

Week 11 2021 · November 21, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Panthers, Week 11 2021: who deserved to win?

Washington beat the Panthers 27–21 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 2.0 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Panthers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:23 left): Washington converted 4th & 3, worth 16 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

Washington Football Team 27
Carolina Panthers 21

November 21, 2021 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −3.5

Luck index +32 Washington lucky · −32 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington win 7, Panthers win 3.

  1. 1 WAS 44 CAR 17
  2. 2 WAS 31 CAR 13
  3. 3 WAS 21 CAR 7
  4. 4 WAS 27 CAR 17
  5. 5 WAS 17 CAR 10
  6. 6 WAS 12 CAR 7
  7. 7 WAS 22 CAR 19
  8. 8 WAS 16 CAR 19
  9. 9 WAS 21 CAR 30
  10. 10 WAS 14 CAR 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington win 68% of them, Panthers 32%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+20.6%
Washington by 9–1621.9%
Washington by 1–825.4%
Level after regulation3.9%
Panthers by 1–816.8%
Panthers by 9–167.7%
Panthers by 17+3.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Washington by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Washington by 1.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • J. Slye, 29 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Washington were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 1:07 Washington converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +10% WAS WAS: Touchdown
2 Q3 12:53 Washington converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +10% WAS WAS: Touchdown
3 Q3 9:26 Washington converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +11% WAS WAS: Touchdown
4 Q4 7:23 Washington converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +16% WAS WAS: Field goal
5 Q4 6:38 Washington fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% WAS WAS: Field goal
6 Q4 4:13 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% WAS WAS: Field goal
7 Q4 3:05 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +12% WAS CAR: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:11 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +11% WAS –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cameron Erving (CAR T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Matt Paradis (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Montez Sweat (WAS DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Chase Young (WAS DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Ricky Seals-Jones (WAS TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Chase Roullier (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Benjamin St-Juste (WAS CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Logan Thomas (WAS TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 46% · Panthers 54%

Final margin
Washington by 6
Luck in points
4.8 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
Washington 68% · Panthers 32% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2021 games · Washington · Panthers

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