luckadjusted

Week 11 2021 · November 21, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Chiefs, Week 11 2021: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Cowboys 19–9, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 8 of 10. The Cowboys had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.6 points to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 57% favorites.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 9
Kansas City Chiefs 19

November 21, 2021 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −2.5

Luck index +16 Chiefs about even · −16 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 2, Chiefs win 8.

  1. 1 DAL 37 KC 23
  2. 2 DAL 24 KC 20
  3. 3 DAL 31 KC 34
  4. 4 DAL 27 KC 34
  5. 5 DAL 23 KC 33
  6. 6 DAL 21 KC 35
  7. 7 DAL 17 KC 35
  8. 8 DAL 19 KC 40
  9. 9 DAL 28 KC 54
  10. 10 DAL 15 KC 51

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 16% of them, Chiefs 84%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+2.3%
Cowboys by 9–164.3%
Cowboys by 1–89.1%
Level after regulation1.7%
Chiefs by 1–819.3%
Chiefs by 9–1621.1%
Chiefs by 17+42.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chiefs by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chiefs by 14.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 37 yds made · 89% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 33 yds made · 92% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 30 yds made · 94% expected
  • H. Butker, 53 yds made · 63% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 48 yds made · 68% expected
  • H. Butker, 51 yds missed · 67% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:05 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedThe Cowboys fumbled and the Chiefs recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% KC DAL: Field goal
2 Q1 2:54 G. Zuerlein made 33-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him +6% DAL DAL: Punt
3 Q2 10:10 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% KC KC: Punt
4 Q3 11:34 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +7% DAL KC: Punt
5 Q3 10:43 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +4% DAL DAL: Field goal
6 Q3 2:42 H. Butker made 53-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 19 of 25 from 45+ before +7% KC KC: Missed field goal
7 Q4 12:57 G. Zuerlein made 48-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 24 of 36 from 45+ before +5% DAL DAL: Punt
8 Q4 9:49 H. Butker missed 51-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 20 of 26 from 45+ before +6% DAL KC: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike Remmers (KC T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Lucas Niang (KC T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Amari Cooper (DAL WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Randy Gregory (DAL DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Blake Jarwin (DAL TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 1% · Chiefs 99%

Final margin
Chiefs by 10
Luck in points
4.9 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 14.9
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 16% · Chiefs 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2021 games · Cowboys · Chiefs

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