2022 season · final
Carolina Panthers, 2022: game by game
The Panthers went 7–10 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 5.5 wins. Luck added 1.5: the 4th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–5.
Every game
How often the Panthers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Browns | L 24–26 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 2 | @ Giants | L 16–19 | 29% | −29 |
| Week 3 | vs Saints | W 22–14 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 4 | vs Cardinals | L 16–26 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 5 | vs 49ers | L 15–37 | 16% | −16 |
| Week 6 | @ Rams | L 10–24 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 7 | vs Buccaneers | W 21–3 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 8 | @ Falcons | L 34–37 | 41% | −41 |
| Week 9 | @ Bengals | L 21–42 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 10 | vs Falcons | W 25–15 | 34% | +66 |
| Week 11 | @ Ravens | L 3–13 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 12 | vs Broncos | W 23–10 | 64% | +36 |
| Week 14 | @ Seahawks | W 30–24 | 55% | +45 |
| Week 15 | vs Steelers | L 16–24 | 19% | −19 |
| Week 16 | vs Lions | W 37–23 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 17 | @ Buccaneers | L 24–30 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 18 | @ Saints | W 10–7 | 7% | +93 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Panthers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.35 | +18.1 |
| Rest | +0.04 | +1.4 |
| Judgment calls | −0.02 | +0.6 |
| Kicks | −0.13 | +31.6 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.18 | −5.5 |
| Drops | −0.36 | −19.5 |