luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 17 2022 · January 1, 2023

Panthers at Buccaneers, Week 17 2022: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Panthers 30–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 9 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 19 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:43 left): R. Succop had a 26-yard field goal blocked, worth 14 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30

January 1, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −3.5

Luck index +13 Buccaneers about even · −13 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 1, Buccaneers win 9.

  1. 1 CAR 34 TB 26
  2. 2 CAR 20 TB 23
  3. 3 CAR 27 TB 34
  4. 4 CAR 26 TB 36
  5. 5 CAR 28 TB 41
  6. 6 CAR 10 TB 26
  7. 7 CAR 17 TB 37
  8. 8 CAR 17 TB 41
  9. 9 CAR 23 TB 52
  10. 10 CAR 13 TB 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 13% of them, Buccaneers 87%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+1.4%
Panthers by 9–163.4%
Panthers by 1–87.9%
Level after regulation1.4%
Buccaneers by 1–815.2%
Buccaneers by 9–1618.2%
Buccaneers by 17+52.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +14.7 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 6, without the luck Buccaneers by 20.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 53 yds missed · 65% expected
  • R. Succop, 22 yds made · 97% expected
  • R. Succop, 26 yds blocked · 96% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 49 yds made · 77% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 8 for 58 yards, Buccaneers 8 for 51 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Antoine Winfield Jr.), 6 yards +1% CAR +0.5 pts
Q1 11:39 Defensive Holding on the Panthers (Keith Taylor), 5 yards +1% TB +0.3 pts
Q1 10:23 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +3% CAR +0.9 pts
Q2 7:27 Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Chris Godwin), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% CAR +3.9 pts
Q3 1:28 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards +3% TB +1.2 pts
Q3 1:01 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Antoine Winfield Jr.), 5 yards +2% CAR +0.7 pts
Q4 14:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers, 14 yards +3% TB +0.9 pts
Q4 10:09 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TB +0.5 pts
Q4 2:48 Delay of Game on the Buccaneers (Tom Brady), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CAR +0.4 pts
Q4 2:39 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards +11% TB +0.9 pts
Q4 1:58 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Joe Tryon-Shoyinka), 5 yards 0% CAR +0.3 pts
Q4 1:04 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +1.8 pts
Q4 0:42 Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Buccaneers, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% TB +2.0 pts
Q4 0:42 Delay of Game on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.1 pts
Q4 0:26 Offensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (D.J. Moore), 4 yards +1% TB 0.0 pts
Q4 0:04 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.1 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 7:27 Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Chris Godwin), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 3478 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +8% CAR CAR: Punt
2 Q2 2:04 The Panthers fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% TB CAR: Turnover on downs
3 Q3 4:53 C. Otton dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 45 catchable balls before this +9% CAR TB: Missed field goal
4 Q3 4:49 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +10% TB TB: Missed field goal
5 Q3 3:43 R. Succop had a 26-yard field goal blockedKicks · 96% expected for him +14% CAR TB: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:48 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expectedDelay of Game on the Buccaneers (Tom Brady), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 10 flags in 4861 snaps before, position avg 1 per 697 +13% CAR TB: Punt
7 Q4 2:39 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yardsJudgment calls +11% TB TB: Touchdown
8 Q4 2:32 The Panthers fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% TB CAR: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Carlton Davis (TB CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Donte Jackson (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 0% · Buccaneers 100%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 6
Luck in points
14.7 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 20.7
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 13% · Buccaneers 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2022 games · Panthers · Buccaneers

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