luckadjusted

Week 17 2022 · January 1, 2023

Panthers at Buccaneers, Week 17 2022: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Panthers 30–24 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 8.5 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:58 left): the Buccaneers converted 3rd & 6, worth 15 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30

January 1, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −3.5

Luck index +26 Buccaneers lucky · −26 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 3, Buccaneers win 7.

  1. 1 CAR 32 TB 12
  2. 2 CAR 37 TB 28
  3. 3 CAR 28 TB 25
  4. 4 CAR 29 TB 31
  5. 5 CAR 7 TB 12
  6. 6 CAR 21 TB 30
  7. 7 CAR 17 TB 29
  8. 8 CAR 27 TB 43
  9. 9 CAR 17 TB 38
  10. 10 CAR 14 TB 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 26% of them, Buccaneers 74%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+4.9%
Panthers by 9–168.6%
Panthers by 1–811.7%
Level after regulation2.6%
Buccaneers by 1–820.2%
Buccaneers by 9–1618.8%
Buccaneers by 17+33.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 23.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 53 yds missed · 64% expected
  • R. Succop, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Succop, 26 yds blocked · 97% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 49 yds made · 78% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 7:57 The Panthers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% CAR CAR: Touchdown
2 Q3 4:53 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expectedC. Otton dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 45 catchable balls before this +12% CAR TB: Missed field goal
3 Q3 4:49 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +10% TB TB: Missed field goal
4 Q3 3:43 R. Succop had a 26-yard field goal blockedKicks · 97% expected for him +14% CAR TB: Touchdown
5 Q4 13:58 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +15% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:48 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedDelay of Game on the Buccaneers (Tom Brady), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 10 flags in 4861 snaps before, position avg 1 per 697 +15% CAR TB: Punt
7 Q4 2:39 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yardsJudgment calls +11% TB TB: Touchdown
8 Q4 2:32 The Panthers fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% TB CAR: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Carlton Davis (TB CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Donte Jackson (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 0% · Buccaneers 100%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 6
Luck in points
17.2 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 23.2
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 26% · Buccaneers 74% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2022 games · Panthers · Buccaneers

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