luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2022 NFL season · December 29, 2022–January 1

Week 17 2022: who deserved to win

No winner of Week 17 was behind in the replays. The closest call: the Falcons won 20–19 and take 43% of replays.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 17 2022 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Saints 20–10 @ Eagles 34% 91% Deserved
Seahawks 23–6 vs Jets 47% 90% Deserved
Browns 24–10 @ Commanders 47% 94% Deserved
Steelers 16–13 @ Ravens 47% 87% Deserved

Week 17 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Falcons W 20–19 vs Cardinals 43% +57
2 49ers W 37–34 @ Raiders 52% +48
3 Patriots W 23–21 vs Dolphins 57% +43
4 Jaguars W 31–3 @ Texans 84% +16
5 Steelers W 16–13 @ Ravens 87% +13
6 Buccaneers W 30–24 vs Panthers 87% +13
7 Packers W 41–17 vs Vikings 88% +12
8 Seahawks W 23–6 vs Jets 90% +10
9 Giants W 38–10 vs Colts 90% +10
10 Saints W 20–10 @ Eagles 91% +9
11 Chargers W 31–10 vs Rams 93% +7
12 Browns W 24–10 @ Commanders 94% +7
13 Cowboys W 27–13 @ Titans 96% +4
14 Chiefs W 27–24 vs Broncos 97% +3
15 Lions W 41–10 vs Bears 100% 0
16 Bears L 10–41 @ Lions 0% 0
17 Broncos L 24–27 @ Chiefs 3% −3
18 Titans L 13–27 vs Cowboys 4% −4
19 Commanders L 10–24 vs Browns 7% −7
20 Rams L 10–31 @ Chargers 7% −7
21 Eagles L 10–20 vs Saints 9% −9
22 Colts L 10–38 @ Giants 10% −10
23 Jets L 6–23 @ Seahawks 10% −10
24 Vikings L 17–41 @ Packers 12% −12
25 Panthers L 24–30 @ Buccaneers 13% −13
26 Ravens L 13–16 vs Steelers 13% −13
27 Texans L 3–31 vs Jaguars 16% −16
28 Dolphins L 21–23 @ Patriots 43% −43
29 Raiders L 34–37 vs 49ers 48% −48
30 Cardinals L 19–20 @ Falcons 57% −57