luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 17 2022 · January 1, 2023

Saints at Eagles, Week 17 2022: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Eagles 20–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Eagles: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Saints they would win 61% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Eagles were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:31 left): Return touchdown by the Saints, worth 36 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

New Orleans Saints 20
Philadelphia Eagles 10

January 1, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −5.5

Luck index +9 Saints about even · −9 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 9, Eagles win 1.

  1. 1 NO 46 PHI 14
  2. 2 NO 34 PHI 10
  3. 3 NO 24 PHI 3
  4. 4 NO 37 PHI 19
  5. 5 NO 38 PHI 23
  6. 6 NO 28 PHI 16
  7. 7 NO 28 PHI 20
  8. 8 NO 24 PHI 19
  9. 9 NO 27 PHI 25
  10. 10 NO 20 PHI 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Eagles

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Saints they would win 61% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%.

53 points apart for the Eagles: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Saints offenseEPA per play gained −0.04 +0.06 worse by 0.10
Saints defenseEPA per play allowed −0.12 +0.04 better by 0.17
Eagles offenseEPA per play gained −0.12 +0.21 worse by 0.33
Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed −0.04 +0.09 better by 0.13

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 91% of them, Eagles 9%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+56.8%
Saints by 9–1622.1%
Saints by 1–812.5%
Level after regulation0.8%
Eagles by 1–85.8%
Eagles by 9–161.6%
Eagles by 17+0.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.5 points to the Saints: the final margin was Saints by 10, without the luck Saints by 7.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 54 yds made · 60% expected
  • W. Lutz, 20 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Elliott, 56 yds made · 58% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 3 for 20 yards, Eagles 8 for 49 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:22 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Saints, 5 yards +2% PHI +0.7 pts
Q2 10:14 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards +3% PHI +1.1 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 9 yards +2% NO +0.8 pts
Q3 11:12 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play +14% NO +5.4 pts
Q3 7:05 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NO +0.8 pts
Q3 6:42 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.8 pts
Q3 5:00 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.7 pts
Q4 12:57 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the play +15% NO +2.8 pts
Q4 10:46 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.4 pts
Q4 3:43 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.1 pts
Q4 3:29 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.3 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:47 The Saints converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +8% NO NO: Touchdown
2 Q3 11:12 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +14% NO NO: Punt
3 Q4 14:17 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +6% PHI NO: Punt
4 Q4 12:57 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +15% NO NO: Punt
5 Q4 12:25 The Eagles got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +6% PHI PHI: Punt
6 Q4 8:35 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +15% NO PHI: Opp touchdown
7 Q4 6:26 J. Johnson dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 45 catchable balls before this +7% PHI NO: Punt
8 Q4 5:31 The Eagles threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the SaintsSpecial teams +36% NO PHI: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Arryn Siposs (PHI P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jarvis Landry (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Andrus Peat (NO G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NO FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cesar Ruiz (NO G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 88% · Eagles 12%

Final margin
Saints by 10
Luck in points
2.5 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 7.5
Replay with same day's form
Saints 91% · Eagles 9% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2022 games · Saints · Eagles

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