luckadjusted

Week 17 2022 · January 1, 2023

Jaguars at Texans, Week 17 2022: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Texans 31–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:43 left): Return touchdown by the Jaguars, worth 11 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 31
Houston Texans 3

January 1, 2023 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −3.5

Luck index +17 Jaguars about even · −17 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 8, Texans win 2.

  1. 1 JAX 38 HOU 7
  2. 2 JAX 33 HOU 10
  3. 3 JAX 23 HOU 5
  4. 4 JAX 34 HOU 19
  5. 5 JAX 24 HOU 12
  6. 6 JAX 9 HOU 0
  7. 7 JAX 24 HOU 19
  8. 8 JAX 20 HOU 18
  9. 9 JAX 31 HOU 34
  10. 10 JAX 9 HOU 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 83% of them, Texans 17%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+37.5%
Jaguars by 9–1621.6%
Jaguars by 1–822.6%
Level after regulation1.3%
Texans by 1–810.7%
Texans by 9–164.8%
Texans by 17+1.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jaguars by 28. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jaguars by 18.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 56 yds made · 63% expected
  • R. Patterson, 53 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:12 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +6% JAX HOU: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 11:35 The Texans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +5% JAX HOU: Punt
3 Q1 8:29 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% JAX JAX: Touchdown
4 Q1 5:09 The Jaguars fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% JAX JAX: Punt
5 Q1 3:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars, 21 yardsJudgment calls +4% HOU HOU: Punt
6 Q1 1:32 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +4% JAX HOU: Punt
7 Q2 11:43 The Texans fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the JaguarsSpecial teams +11% JAX HOU: Punt
8 Q2 6:54 The Texans were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +3% JAX HOU: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nico Collins (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Dameon Pierce (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Teagan Quitoriano (HOU TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Cam Robinson (JAX T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Dawuane Smoot (JAX DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 100% · Texans 0%

Final margin
Jaguars by 28
Luck in points
9.6 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 18.4
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 83% · Texans 17% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2022 games · Jaguars · Texans

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