luckadjusted

Week 17 2022 · January 1, 2023

Dolphins at Patriots, Week 17 2022: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Dolphins 23–21, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Patriots win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 7.1 points to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:03 left): Return touchdown by the Patriots, worth 56 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

Miami Dolphins 21
New England Patriots 23

January 1, 2023 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −3

Luck index +59 Patriots lucky · −59 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 6, Patriots win 4.

  1. 1 MIA 32 NE 9
  2. 2 MIA 26 NE 10
  3. 3 MIA 27 NE 16
  4. 4 MIA 20 NE 13
  5. 5 MIA 14 NE 10
  6. 6 MIA 25 NE 23
  7. 7 MIA 17 NE 20
  8. 8 MIA 13 NE 19
  9. 9 MIA 13 NE 23
  10. 10 MIA 10 NE 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 59% of them, Patriots 41%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+14.1%
Dolphins by 9–1616.3%
Dolphins by 1–827.4%
Level after regulation2.6%
Patriots by 1–820.2%
Patriots by 9–1612.9%
Patriots by 17+6.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 12.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 51 yds missed · 70% expected
  • N. Folk, 49 yds made · 76% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 12:03 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +12% MIA NE: Punt
2 Q2 8:41 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +14% MIA MIA: Missed field goal
3 Q3 12:18 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedR. Stevenson dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 67 catchable balls before this +10% MIA NE: Punt
4 Q3 3:03 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedThe Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the PatriotsSpecial teams +56% NE MIA: Turnover
5 Q3 1:06 Roughing the Passer on the Patriots (Ja'Whaun Bentley), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 2704 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +9% MIA MIA: Turnover
6 Q4 14:55 Illegal Shift on the Dolphins (Tyreek Hill), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 12 flags in 3598 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +11% NE NE: Punt
7 Q4 14:24 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedThe Dolphins were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +36% NE MIA: Punt
8 Q4 8:21 The Patriots converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +9% NE NE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jonnu Smith (NE TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jalen Mills (NE CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jack Jones (NE CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jake Bailey (NE P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tua Tagovailoa (MIA QB), out, replaced by s.thompson · 6.1 pts
  • Xavien Howard (MIA CB), out · 1.3 pts
  • Terron Armstead (MIA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Bradley Chubb (MIA LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 79% · Patriots 21%

Final margin
Patriots by 2
Luck in points
14.3 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 12.3
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 59% · Patriots 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2022 games · Dolphins · Patriots

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