luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 17 2022 · January 1, 2023

Dolphins at Patriots, Week 17 2022: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Dolphins 23–21, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Patriots win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:03 left): Return touchdown by the Patriots, worth 34 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

Miami Dolphins 21
New England Patriots 23

January 1, 2023 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −3

Luck index +43 Patriots lucky · −43 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 4, Patriots win 6.

  1. 1 MIA 36 NE 13
  2. 2 MIA 34 NE 21
  3. 3 MIA 23 NE 16
  4. 4 MIA 10 NE 7
  5. 5 MIA 19 NE 20
  6. 6 MIA 27 NE 32
  7. 7 MIA 18 NE 26
  8. 8 MIA 13 NE 26
  9. 9 MIA 3 NE 20
  10. 10 MIA 14 NE 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 43% of them, Patriots 57%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+7.5%
Dolphins by 9–1612.6%
Dolphins by 1–819.8%
Level after regulation3.8%
Patriots by 1–827.8%
Patriots by 9–1615.8%
Patriots by 17+12.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.9 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Patriots by 2, without the luck Dolphins by 8.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 51 yds missed · 69% expected
  • N. Folk, 49 yds made · 75% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 9 for 71 yards, Patriots 6 for 39 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:48 False Start on the Dolphins (Teddy Bridgewater), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.4 pts
Q1 10:52 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Keion Crossen), 9 yards +5% NE +1.7 pts
Q1 8:44 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins, 5 yards +1% NE +0.7 pts
Q1 5:39 Running Into the Kicker on the Patriots, 5 yards +2% MIA +0.7 pts
Q1 5:39 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NE +0.7 pts
Q2 6:21 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.4 pts
Q2 5:38 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards +3% NE +0.9 pts
Q3 5:15 False Start on the Patriots (Kendrick Bourne), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% MIA +0.8 pts
Q3 3:09 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NE +0.8 pts
Q3 1:26 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Patriots (Joshua Uche), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIA +0.5 pts
Q3 1:06 Roughing the Passer on the Patriots (Ja'Whaun Bentley), 15 yards +9% MIA +1.8 pts
Q4 14:55 Illegal Shift on the Dolphins (Tyreek Hill), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +11% NE +1.6 pts
Q4 5:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Keion Crossen), 22 yards +8% NE +2.1 pts
Q4 2:06 Delay of Game on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NE +0.5 pts
Q4 1:16 Defensive Holding on the Patriots, 4 yards +3% MIA +0.6 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 8:41 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +8% MIA MIA: Missed field goal
2 Q3 12:18 R. Stevenson dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 67 catchable balls before this +8% MIA NE: Punt
3 Q3 3:03 The Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the PatriotsSpecial teams +34% NE MIA: Turnover
4 Q3 1:06 Roughing the Passer on the Patriots (Ja'Whaun Bentley), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 2704 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +9% MIA MIA: Turnover
5 Q4 14:55 Illegal Shift on the Dolphins (Tyreek Hill), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 12 flags in 3598 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +11% NE NE: Punt
6 Q4 14:24 The Dolphins were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +20% NE MIA: Punt
7 Q4 8:21 The Patriots converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +8% NE NE: Touchdown
8 Q4 5:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Keion Crossen), 22 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 1834 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +8% NE NE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jonnu Smith (NE TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jalen Mills (NE CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jack Jones (NE CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jake Bailey (NE P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tua Tagovailoa (MIA QB), out, replaced by s.thompson · 6.1 pts
  • Xavien Howard (MIA CB), out · 1.3 pts
  • Terron Armstead (MIA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Bradley Chubb (MIA LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 73% · Patriots 27%

Final margin
Patriots by 2
Luck in points
10.9 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 8.9
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 43% · Patriots 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2022 games · Dolphins · Patriots

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