luckadjusted

Week 17 2022 · January 1, 2023

Steelers at Ravens, Week 17 2022: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Ravens 16–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Steelers win 8 of 10. The Ravens had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.4 points to the Ravens.

An off day for the Ravens: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Steelers they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 19%. The numbers

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:02 left): the Steelers converted 3rd & 8, worth 22 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 16
Baltimore Ravens 13

January 1, 2023 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −1

Luck index +19 Steelers about even · −19 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 8, Ravens win 2.

  1. 1 PIT 27 BAL 0
  2. 2 PIT 23 BAL 3
  3. 3 PIT 29 BAL 14
  4. 4 PIT 31 BAL 19
  5. 5 PIT 12 BAL 3
  6. 6 PIT 9 BAL 3
  7. 7 PIT 17 BAL 13
  8. 8 PIT 16 BAL 14
  9. 9 PIT 13 BAL 17
  10. 10 PIT 13 BAL 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Ravens

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Steelers they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 19%.

32 points apart for the Ravens: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Steelers offenseEPA per play gained +0.15 +0.06 better by 0.10
Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.01 +0.12 better by 0.11
Ravens offenseEPA per play gained +0.01 +0.10 worse by 0.10
Ravens defenseEPA per play allowed +0.15 +0.09 worse by 0.06

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 81% of them, Ravens 19%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+28.5%
Steelers by 9–1622.9%
Steelers by 1–829.1%
Level after regulation2.5%
Ravens by 1–811.3%
Ravens by 9–164.7%
Ravens by 17+1.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 1.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 21 yds made · 100% expected
  • J. Tucker, 30 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Boswell, 48 yds missed · 81% expected
  • J. Tucker, 51 yds made · 77% expected
  • C. Boswell, 51 yds made · 75% expected
  • C. Boswell, 33 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:51 The Ravens converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% BAL BAL: Field goal
2 Q2 5:36 The Steelers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +8% PIT PIT: Missed field goal
3 Q2 3:35 C. Boswell missed 48-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him, 32 of 40 from 45+ before +11% BAL PIT: End of half
4 Q4 11:48 The Steelers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +9% PIT PIT: Field goal
5 Q4 8:51 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedI. Likely dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 36 catchable balls before this +10% PIT BAL: Punt
6 Q4 6:47 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedP. Freiermuth dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 70 catchable balls before this +11% BAL PIT: Punt
7 Q4 1:02 The Steelers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +22% PIT PIT: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:20 The Ravens threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's handsUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Steelers, 15 yardsJudgment calls +10% PIT –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by t.huntley · 5.3 pts
  • Marcus Peters (BAL CB), out · 1.5 pts
  • Calais Campbell (BAL DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Geno Stone (BAL SS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Devin Duvernay (BAL WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 90% · Ravens 10%

Final margin
Steelers by 3
Luck in points
4.9 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 1.9
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 81% · Ravens 19% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2022 games · Steelers · Ravens

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