luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 17 2022 · January 1, 2023

Jets at Seahawks, Week 17 2022: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Jets 23–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Jets: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%. The numbers

Before kickoff it was a pick’em.

Final

New York Jets 6
Seattle Seahawks 23

January 1, 2023 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Jets −1

Luck index +10 Seahawks about even · −10 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 1, Seahawks win 9.

  1. 1 NYJ 25 SEA 17
  2. 2 NYJ 26 SEA 28
  3. 3 NYJ 22 SEA 26
  4. 4 NYJ 19 SEA 26
  5. 5 NYJ 10 SEA 20
  6. 6 NYJ 3 SEA 16
  7. 7 NYJ 14 SEA 30
  8. 8 NYJ 10 SEA 29
  9. 9 NYJ 0 SEA 23
  10. 10 NYJ 3 SEA 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Jets

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%.

40 points apart for the Jets: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Jets offenseEPA per play gained −0.08 +0.02 worse by 0.10
Jets defenseEPA per play allowed +0.14 +0.10 worse by 0.05
Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained +0.14 +0.11 better by 0.04
Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed −0.08 +0.12 better by 0.20

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 10% of them, Seahawks 90%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+0.5%
Jets by 9–162.3%
Jets by 1–86.8%
Level after regulation1.0%
Seahawks by 1–815.9%
Seahawks by 9–1620.8%
Seahawks by 17+52.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.8 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 17, without the luck Seahawks by 3.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 57 yds missed · 64% expected
  • J. Myers, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Myers, 41 yds missed · 88% expected
  • J. Myers, 31 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 2 for 10 yards, Seahawks 5 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:27 Defensive Offside on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SEA +1.2 pts
Q2 14:15 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.6 pts
Q2 9:56 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.7 pts
Q2 0:59 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.1 pts
Q2 0:19 Illegal Use of Hands on the Seahawks (L.J. Collier), 5 yards +1% NYJ 0.0 pts
Q2 0:14 Defensive Offside on the Seahawks (Uchenna Nwosu), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ 0.0 pts
Q3 3:50 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +1.2 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:23 The Jets threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +3% SEA NYJ: Field goal
2 Q1 5:14 C. Uzomah dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 19 catchable balls before this +3% SEA NYJ: Field goal
3 Q1 5:09 The Jets converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +4% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
4 Q2 3:47 G. Wilson dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 85 catchable balls before this +7% SEA NYJ: Turnover
5 Q3 14:09 The Jets converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +4% NYJ NYJ: Missed field goal
6 Q3 12:10 C. Davis dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 34 catchable balls before this +4% SEA NYJ: Missed field goal
7 Q3 12:05 G. Zuerlein missed a 57-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 39 of 57 from 45+ before +4% SEA NYJ: Punt
8 Q4 13:04 J. Myers missed a 41-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him +3% NYJ SEA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Abraham Lucas (SEA T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Ryan Neal (SEA SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Will Dissly (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Marquise Goodwin (SEA WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Nate Herbig (NYJ G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Max Mitchell (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 40% · Seahawks 60%

Final margin
Seahawks by 17
Luck in points
13.8 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 3.2
Replay with same day's form
Jets 10% · Seahawks 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2022 games · Jets · Seahawks

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