Week 17 2022 · January 1, 2023
Browns at Commanders, Week 17 2022: who deserved to win?
The Browns beat the Commanders 24–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Browns win 9 of 10.
An off day for the Commanders: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Browns they would win 44% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q1, 3:56 left): the Commanders were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 10 points of win probability to the Browns.
Final
 Cleveland Browns | 24 |
|---|---|
 Washington Commanders | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Browns about even · −7 Commanders
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Browns win 9, Commanders win 1.
- 1 CLE 40 WAS 9
- 2 CLE 30 WAS 6
- 3 CLE 26 WAS 6
- 4 CLE 31 WAS 15
- 5 CLE 16 WAS 3
- 6 CLE 30 WAS 20
- 7 CLE 19 WAS 12
- 8 CLE 20 WAS 14
- 9 CLE 20 WAS 17
- 10 CLE 20 WAS 24
Your call
Did the Browns earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Commanders
Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Browns they would win 44% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
38 points apart for the Commanders: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Browns offenseEPA per play gained | +0.24 | +0.09 | better by 0.14 |
| Browns defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.05 | +0.08 | better by 0.13 |
| Commanders offenseEPA per play gained | −0.05 | +0.06 | worse by 0.11 |
| Commanders defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.24 | +0.09 | worse by 0.15 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Browns win 93% of them, Commanders 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Browns by 17+ | 50.9% |
| Browns by 9–16 | 24.7% |
| Browns by 1–8 | 16.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.5% |
| Commanders by 1–8 | 4.5% |
| Commanders by 9–16 | 1.6% |
| Commanders by 17+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. York, 37 yds made · 90% expected
- J. Slye, 43 yds made · 83% expected
Penalties: Browns 3 for 20 yards, Commanders 5 for 24 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:41 | Defensive Offside on the Commanders (Montez Sweat), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CLE +0.2 pts |
| Q1 13:22 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards | +4% WAS +1.0 pts |
| Q1 0:26 | Defensive Offside on the Commanders (Khaleke Hudson), 4 yards · pre-snap | +4% CLE +0.1 pts |
| Q2 14:16 | Defensive Holding on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 5 yards | +4% WAS +1.3 pts |
| Q3 2:35 | Illegal Shift on the Browns, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% WAS +1.4 pts |
| Q4 8:25 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CLE +0.7 pts |
| Q4 2:40 | False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CLE +0.4 pts |
| Q4 2:08 | False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CLE +0.2 pts |
Browns penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Commanders’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:59 | The Commanders converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +7% WAS | WAS: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 3:56 | The Commanders were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +10% CLE | WAS: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 0:23 | The Browns were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +10% WAS | CLE: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 6:09 | The Commanders converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 17% expected | +9% WAS | WAS: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 0:23 | The Commanders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +7% WAS | WAS: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 10:12 | The Browns converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +8% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 0:43 | The Browns converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +8% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 11:09 | The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +7% CLE | WAS: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Kamren Curl (WAS SS), out · 0.6 pts
- Benjamin St-Juste (WAS CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Tyler Larsen (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- James Smith-Williams (WAS DE), out · 0.3 pts
- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Sione Takitaki (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Browns 100% · Commanders 0%
- Final margin
- Browns by 14
- Luck in points
- 2.0 for the Commanders
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Browns by 16.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Browns 93% · Commanders 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2022 games · 
Browns · 
Commanders
More from Week 17 2022
- Cowboys at Titans DAL 27–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Cardinals at Falcons ATL 20–19 · replay 43% for the winner
- Panthers at Buccaneers TB 30–24 · replay 87% for the winner
- Bears at Lions DET 41–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 27–24 · replay 97% for the winner
- Colts at Giants NYG 38–10 · replay 90% for the winner
- Jaguars at Texans JAX 31–3 · replay 84% for the winner
- Dolphins at Patriots NE 23–21 · replay 57% for the winner
- Saints at Eagles NO 20–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Jets at Seahawks SEA 23–6 · replay 90% for the winner
- 49ers at Raiders SF 37–34 · replay 52% for the winner
- Rams at Chargers LAC 31–10 · replay 93% for the winner
- Vikings at Packers GB 41–17 · replay 88% for the winner
- Steelers at Ravens PIT 16–13 · replay 87% for the winner