luckadjusted

2022 season · final

Cleveland Browns, 2022: game by game

The Browns went 7–10 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.6 wins. Luck cost them 2.6: the 3rd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–6.

Every game

How often the Browns win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Panthers W 26–24 97% +3
Week 2 vs Jets L 30–31 98% −98
Week 3 vs Steelers W 29–17 83% +17
Week 4 @ Falcons L 20–23 47% −47
Week 5 vs Chargers L 28–30 66% −66
Week 6 vs Patriots L 15–38 4% −4
Week 7 @ Ravens L 20–23 48% −48
Week 8 vs Bengals W 32–13 81% +19
Week 10 @ Dolphins L 17–39 5% −5
Week 11 @ Bills L 23–31 30% −30
Week 12 vs Buccaneers W 23–17 60% +40
Week 13 @ Texans W 27–14 82% +18
Week 14 @ Bengals L 10–23 8% −8
Week 15 vs Ravens W 13–3 79% +21
Week 16 vs Saints L 10–17 47% −47
Week 17 @ Commanders W 24–10 90% +10
Week 18 @ Steelers L 14–28 34% −34

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Browns’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Injuries+7.3+0.43
Drops+6.5+0.38
3rd & 4th downs+3.0+0.18
Rest+0.6+0.03
Kicks−6.9−0.40
Fumble bounces−17.3−1.02
Judgment calls−23.3−1.37