luckadjusted

Referee calls · 2019–2026

Do refs favor the Browns?

No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth −0.45 points a game to the Browns since 2019, 25th of 32 teams. In the playoffs: +1.45 points a game over 3 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

Call luck, season by season

Points per regular-season game from judgment calls: the calls that helped the Browns minus the calls that hurt them.

SeasonGamesPoints per gameLeague rankFlags againstFlags forPlayoffs, pts per game
20262+1.25 8th87 –
202517−0.30 22nd5963 –
202417+0.31 13th5666 –
202317−0.10 19th5762 −1.69 (1)
202217−1.37 32nd7151 –
202117−0.26 19th6470 –
202016−1.13 27th5645 +3.02 (2)
201916−0.56 21st7965 –

Biggest calls for the Browns

  1. Illegal Contact on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2023 Week 7 · 61 pts of win probability
  2. Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2021 Week 15 · 58 pts of win probability
  3. Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (C.J. Henderson), 34 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 1 · 22 pts of win probability
  4. Illegal Use of Hands on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 12 · 21 pts of win probability
  5. Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 16 · 20 pts of win probability

Biggest calls against

  1. Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Amari Cooper), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 7 · 70 pts of win probability
  2. Offensive Holding on the Browns, 9 yards, wiping out the play · 2024 Week 4 · 42 pts of win probability
  3. Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns, 18 yards, wiping out the play · 2021 Week 4 · 30 pts of win probability
  4. Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Browns, 15 yards · 2023 Week 6 · 28 pts of win probability
  5. Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2021 Week 15 · 26 pts of win probability

Questions

Do refs favor the Browns?

No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth −0.45 points a game to the Browns since 2019, 25th of 32 teams.

What about the playoffs?

In the playoffs: +1.45 points a game over 3 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

How is this measured?

Every flag that isn’t a pre-snap foul (holding, pass interference, roughing, unnecessary roughness and the like) is valued in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out. A flag on a player who is rarely flagged counts more (up to twice), one on a frequent offender less. A team’s call luck is the calls that helped it minus the calls that hurt it. It says how the calls went, not why: teams that throw deep draw more pass interference, for example.

Is it more than chance?

Mostly not. A team’s call luck in odd weeks barely predicts its call luck in even weeks (correlation 0.06 across all teams since 2019), which is what chance looks like. Over 32 teams, a few will always sit at the top of this list.

All teams, 2026 · Referee crews · Cleveland Browns, every season