2023 season · final
Cleveland Browns, 2023: game by game
The Browns went 11–6 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.1 wins. Luck added 2.9: the 2nd-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–2.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.1.
Every game
How often the Browns win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Bengals | W 24–3 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 2 | @ Steelers | L 22–26 | 54% | −54 |
| Week 3 | vs Titans | W 27–3 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 4 | vs Ravens | L 3–28 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 6 | vs 49ers | W 19–17 | 17% | +83 |
| Week 7 | @ Colts | W 39–38 | 10% | +90 |
| Week 8 | @ Seahawks | L 20–24 | 59% | −59 |
| Week 9 | vs Cardinals | W 27–0 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 10 | @ Ravens | W 33–31 | 14% | +86 |
| Week 11 | vs Steelers | W 13–10 | 29% | +71 |
| Week 12 | @ Broncos | L 12–29 | 23% | −23 |
| Week 13 | @ Rams | L 19–36 | 35% | −35 |
| Week 14 | vs Jaguars | W 31–27 | 61% | +39 |
| Week 15 | vs Bears | W 20–17 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 16 | @ Texans | W 36–22 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 17 | vs Jets | W 37–20 | 27% | +73 |
| Week 18 | @ Bengals | L 14–31 | 6% | −6 |
| Wild Card | @ Texans | L 14–45 | 8% | −8 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Browns’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +1.51 | +24.4 |
| Injuries | +0.24 | +8.8 |
| Judgment calls | +0.11 | +0.7 |
| Rest | +0.04 | +2.0 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.18 | −6.7 |
| Drops | −0.37 | −10.6 |