luckadjusted

Week 4 2023 · October 1, 2023

Ravens at Browns, Week 4 2023: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Browns 28–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 6.1 points to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:59 left): the Browns were stopped on 3rd & 3, worth 27 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 28
Cleveland Browns 3

October 1, 2023 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −2

Luck index +6 Ravens about even · −6 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 9, Browns win 1.

  1. 1 BAL 33 CLE 3
  2. 2 BAL 25 CLE 0
  3. 3 BAL 31 CLE 9
  4. 4 BAL 30 CLE 12
  5. 5 BAL 30 CLE 14
  6. 6 BAL 28 CLE 16
  7. 7 BAL 27 CLE 17
  8. 8 BAL 34 CLE 27
  9. 9 BAL 24 CLE 21
  10. 10 BAL 13 CLE 19

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 94% of them, Browns 6%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 25.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+63.8%
Ravens by 9–1620.1%
Ravens by 1–89.6%
Level after regulation0.8%
Browns by 1–84.3%
Browns by 9–161.2%
Browns by 17+0.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 25. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 35.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:11 The Browns converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% CLE CLE: Punt
2 Q1 9:55 The Browns got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% CLE CLE: Punt
3 Q1 6:59 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +27% BAL CLE: Field goal
4 Q1 4:18 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Brandon Stephens), 37 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1855 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +7% CLE CLE: Field goal
5 Q1 2:26 D. Hopkins made 53-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 23 of 33 from 45+ before +4% CLE CLE: Punt
6 Q1 2:17 The Ravens got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% BAL BAL: Punt
7 Q2 10:53 The Ravens fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% CLE BAL: Touchdown
8 Q2 2:45 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +15% CLE CLE: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jack Conklin (CLE T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Nick Chubb (CLE RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out · 1.4 pts
  • Ronnie Stanley (BAL T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Marcus Williams (BAL FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Rashod Bateman (BAL WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ar'Darius Washington (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyus Bowser (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Nick Moore (BAL LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 100% · Browns 0%

Final margin
Ravens by 25
Luck in points
10.4 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 35.4
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 94% · Browns 6% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2023 games · Ravens · Browns

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