luckadjusted

Week 4 2023 · October 1, 2023

Bengals at Titans, Week 4 2023: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Bengals 27–3, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Titans win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 4.1 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:56 left): the Titans converted 3rd & 7, worth 13 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 3
Tennessee Titans 27

October 1, 2023 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −2.5

Luck index +57 Titans lucky · −57 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 6, Titans win 4.

  1. 1 CIN 35 TEN 13
  2. 2 CIN 24 TEN 10
  3. 3 CIN 23 TEN 12
  4. 4 CIN 17 TEN 10
  5. 5 CIN 17 TEN 13
  6. 6 CIN 19 TEN 17
  7. 7 CIN 23 TEN 26
  8. 8 CIN 3 TEN 10
  9. 9 CIN 7 TEN 19
  10. 10 CIN 17 TEN 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 57% of them, Titans 43%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+11.5%
Bengals by 9–1616.5%
Bengals by 1–829.2%
Level after regulation3.8%
Titans by 1–819.6%
Titans by 9–1613.6%
Titans by 17+5.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Titans by 24. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 14.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 21 yds made · 100% expected
  • N. Folk, 53 yds made · 69% expected
  • N. Folk, 35 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 41% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:08 D. Hopkins dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 89 catchable balls before this +5% CIN TEN: Field goal
2 Q1 5:55 The Titans converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +9% TEN TEN: Field goal
3 Q1 2:05 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +9% CIN TEN: Field goal
4 Q1 0:39 T. Higgins dropped a catchable passDrops · 8 drops on 116 catchable balls before this +5% TEN CIN: Punt
5 Q2 14:12 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% TEN CIN: Punt
6 Q2 9:39 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +5% TEN CIN: Punt
7 Q2 7:56 The Titans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +13% TEN TEN: Touchdown
8 Q2 5:34 The Titans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% TEN TEN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nicholas Petit-Frere (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Elijah Molden (TEN CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Treylon Burks (TEN WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jackson Carman (CIN G), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 2% · Titans 98%

Final margin
Titans by 24
Luck in points
9.3 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 14.7
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 57% · Titans 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2023 games · Bengals · Titans

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