2023 season · final
Tennessee Titans, 2023: game by game
The Titans went 6–11 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 5.1 wins. Luck added 0.9: the 11th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–7.
Every game
How often the Titans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Saints | L 15–16 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 2 | vs Chargers | W 27–24 | 74% | +26 |
| Week 3 | @ Browns | L 3–27 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 4 | vs Bengals | W 27–3 | 45% | +55 |
| Week 5 | @ Colts | L 16–23 | 39% | −39 |
| Week 6 | vs Ravens | L 16–24 | 41% | −41 |
| Week 8 | vs Falcons | W 28–23 | 31% | +69 |
| Week 9 | @ Steelers | L 16–20 | 20% | −20 |
| Week 10 | @ Buccaneers | L 6–20 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 11 | @ Jaguars | L 14–34 | 17% | −17 |
| Week 12 | vs Panthers | W 17–10 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 13 | vs Colts | L 28–31 | 34% | −34 |
| Week 14 | @ Dolphins | W 28–27 | 4% | +96 |
| Week 15 | vs Texans | L 16–19 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 16 | vs Seahawks | L 17–20 | 39% | −39 |
| Week 17 | @ Texans | L 3–26 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 18 | vs Jaguars | W 28–20 | 30% | +70 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Titans’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Rest | +0.07 | +2.4 |
| Judgment calls | +0.02 | −7.3 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.02 | −2.1 |
| Injuries | −0.09 | −2.8 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.18 | −10.6 |
| Drops | −0.22 | −2.4 |
| Kicks | −0.59 | −5.3 |