luckadjusted

Week 9 2023 · November 2, 2023

Titans at Steelers, Week 9 2023: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Titans 20–16 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.1 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:11 left): the Titans were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 62 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Tennessee Titans 16
Pittsburgh Steelers 20

November 2, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −3.5

Luck index +33 Steelers lucky · −33 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 3, Steelers win 7.

  1. 1 TEN 23 PIT 9
  2. 2 TEN 13 PIT 6
  3. 3 TEN 13 PIT 10
  4. 4 TEN 13 PIT 15
  5. 5 TEN 7 PIT 10
  6. 6 TEN 21 PIT 27
  7. 7 TEN 13 PIT 22
  8. 8 TEN 7 PIT 19
  9. 9 TEN 10 PIT 26
  10. 10 TEN 0 PIT 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 33% of them, Steelers 67%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+3.3%
Titans by 9–168.6%
Titans by 1–819.7%
Level after regulation2.0%
Steelers by 1–830.6%
Steelers by 9–1620.8%
Steelers by 17+15.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Steelers by 5.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • C. Boswell, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • N. Folk, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • C. Boswell, 30 yds made · 98% expected
  • N. Folk, 48 yds made · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:09 The Titans converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +12% TEN TEN: Touchdown
2 Q3 0:24 N. Folk made 48-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 33 of 43 from 45+ before +11% TEN TEN: Punt
3 Q4 9:27 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedT. Spears dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 23 catchable balls before this +13% PIT TEN: Punt
4 Q4 5:06 The Steelers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +20% PIT PIT: Touchdown
5 Q4 4:02 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Steelers, 15 yardsJudgment calls +12% TEN TEN: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 1:44 The Titans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +23% TEN TEN: Turnover
7 Q4 0:20 The Titans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +43% TEN TEN: Turnover
8 Q4 0:11 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedThe Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +62% PIT –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Minkah Fitzpatrick (PIT FS), out · 0.9 pts
  • Pat Freiermuth (PIT TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Ryan Tannehill (TEN QB), out, replaced by w.levis · 2.8 pts
  • Roger McCreary (TEN CB), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 14% · Steelers 86%

Final margin
Steelers by 4
Luck in points
1.5 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 5.5
Replay with same day's form
Titans 33% · Steelers 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2023 games · Titans · Steelers

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