luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 9 2023 · November 2, 2023

Titans at Steelers, Week 9 2023: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Titans 20–16, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Steelers win 8 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:20 left): the Titans got away with an interception-worthy throw, worth 33 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 16
Pittsburgh Steelers 20

November 2, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −3.5

Luck index +20 Steelers about even · −20 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 2, Steelers win 8.

  1. 1 TEN 15 PIT 3
  2. 2 TEN 13 PIT 10
  3. 3 TEN 24 PIT 26
  4. 4 TEN 10 PIT 13
  5. 5 TEN 14 PIT 20
  6. 6 TEN 7 PIT 16
  7. 7 TEN 31 PIT 42
  8. 8 TEN 13 PIT 27
  9. 9 TEN 3 PIT 20
  10. 10 TEN 19 PIT 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 20% of them, Steelers 80%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+1.5%
Titans by 9–165.1%
Titans by 1–811.3%
Level after regulation3.1%
Steelers by 1–829.0%
Steelers by 9–1623.1%
Steelers by 17+27.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth 0.0 points to the Titans: the final margin was Steelers by 4, without the luck Steelers by 4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 36 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. Boswell, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • N. Folk, 36 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. Boswell, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • N. Folk, 48 yds made · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 7 for 51 yards, Steelers 10 for 80 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:50 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Steelers, 5 yards +6% TEN +0.7 pts
Q1 10:11 Illegal Double-Team Block on the Titans (Trevon Wesco), 10 yards +2% PIT +0.7 pts
Q1 9:30 Roughing the Passer on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 15 yards +3% TEN +1.0 pts
Q1 8:28 Illegal Contact on the Steelers (Patrick Peterson), 5 yards +2% TEN +0.6 pts
Q1 6:13 Face Mask on the Steelers (Joey Porter Jr.), 15 yards +5% TEN +1.8 pts
Q1 4:22 Illegal Use of Hands on the Steelers (Joey Porter Jr.), 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% TEN +2.0 pts
Q1 1:53 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 9 yards, wiping out the play +4% PIT +1.5 pts
Q1 1:30 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Chigoziem Okonkwo), 4 yards, wiping out the play +4% PIT +1.1 pts
Q1 0:28 False Start on the Titans (Nick Westbrook-Ikhine), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +0.5 pts
Q2 3:54 Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 15 yards +6% PIT +0.9 pts
Q2 1:24 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% TEN +0.6 pts
Q3 9:51 Illegal Contact on the Titans (Elijah Molden), 5 yards +9% PIT +1.7 pts
Q3 5:04 Illegal Contact on the Steelers (Patrick Peterson), 5 yards +5% TEN +1.2 pts
Q4 4:10 Defensive Holding on the Titans (Eric Garror), 3 yards +3% PIT +1.1 pts
Q4 4:10 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% TEN +1.2 pts
Q4 4:02 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Steelers, 15 yards +12% TEN +1.4 pts
Q4 0:53 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Joey Porter Jr.), 5 yards +5% TEN +0.6 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 0:24 N. Folk made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 33 of 43 from 45+ before +12% TEN TEN: Punt
2 Q4 9:27 T. Spears dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 23 catchable balls before this +11% PIT TEN: Punt
3 Q4 5:06 The Steelers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +13% PIT PIT: Touchdown
4 Q4 4:02 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Steelers, 15 yardsJudgment calls +12% TEN TEN: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 2:13 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +11% PIT TEN: Turnover
6 Q4 1:44 The Titans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws +18% TEN TEN: Turnover
7 Q4 0:20 The Titans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws +33% TEN TEN: Turnover
8 Q4 0:11 The Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws +26% PIT –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Minkah Fitzpatrick (PIT FS), out · 0.9 pts
  • Pat Freiermuth (PIT TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Ryan Tannehill (TEN QB), out, replaced by w.levis · 2.8 pts
  • Roger McCreary (TEN CB), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 13% · Steelers 87%

Final margin
Steelers by 4
Luck in points
none
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 4.0
Replay with same day's form
Titans 20% · Steelers 80% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2023 games · Titans · Steelers

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