luckadjusted

Week 9 2023 · November 5, 2023

Buccaneers at Texans, Week 9 2023: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Buccaneers 39–37, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 8 of 10. The Buccaneers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.7 points to the Buccaneers.

Before kickoff the Texans were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:53 left): the Buccaneers fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 21 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 37
Houston Texans 39

November 5, 2023 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −2.5

Luck index +19 Texans about even · −19 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 2, Texans win 8.

  1. 1 TB 42 HOU 27
  2. 2 TB 17 HOU 13
  3. 3 TB 22 HOU 24
  4. 4 TB 20 HOU 25
  5. 5 TB 30 HOU 38
  6. 6 TB 26 HOU 38
  7. 7 TB 30 HOU 46
  8. 8 TB 14 HOU 34
  9. 9 TB 15 HOU 41
  10. 10 TB 7 HOU 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 19% of them, Texans 81%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+2.5%
Buccaneers by 9–165.5%
Buccaneers by 1–811.1%
Level after regulation1.3%
Texans by 1–822.0%
Texans by 9–1620.8%
Texans by 17+36.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 7.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 50 yds made · 72% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 49 yds made · 75% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 55 yds made · 66% expected
  • D. Ogunbowale, 29 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:31 Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Mike Evans), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 13 flags in 4252 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +14% HOU HOU: Punt
2 Q3 12:20 The Texans’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Texans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's handsUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Buccaneers (Joe Tryon-Shoyinka), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1975 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +15% HOU HOU: Touchdown
3 Q3 10:59 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Shaquill Griffin), 37 yardsJudgment calls · 14 flags in 3609 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +13% TB TB: Field goal
4 Q4 14:15 The Texans converted 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +17% HOU HOU: Touchdown
5 Q4 7:11 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:13 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +18% TB TB: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:53 The Buccaneers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +21% TB TB: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:10 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Buccaneers (Lavonte David), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 5057 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +16% HOU HOU: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Robert Woods (HOU WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Sheldon Rankins (HOU DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kendrick Green (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jarrett Patterson (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Logan Hall (TB DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Matt Feiler (TB G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 27% · Texans 73%

Final margin
Texans by 2
Luck in points
5.8 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 7.8
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 19% · Texans 81% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2023 games · Buccaneers · Texans

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