luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2023 NFL season · November 2, 2023–November 6

Week 9 2023: who deserved to win

1 of 14 winners was behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Bengals beat the Bills 24–18 in a game they win 30% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 9 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 2 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Vikings 31–28 @ Falcons 40% 60% Deserved
Commanders 20–17 @ Patriots 43% 74% Deserved

Week 9 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bengals W 24–18 vs Bills 30% +70
2 Eagles W 28–23 vs Cowboys 46% +54
3 Vikings W 31–28 @ Falcons 60% +40
4 Chargers W 27–6 @ Jets 67% +33
5 Texans W 39–37 vs Buccaneers 70% +30
6 Chiefs W 21–14 vs Dolphins 70% +30
7 Commanders W 20–17 @ Patriots 74% +26
8 Colts W 27–13 @ Panthers 79% +21
9 Steelers W 20–16 vs Titans 80% +20
10 Saints W 24–17 vs Bears 85% +15
11 Packers W 20–3 vs Rams 85% +15
12 Ravens W 37–3 vs Seahawks 98% +2
13 Raiders W 30–6 vs Giants 98% +2
14 Browns W 27–0 vs Cardinals 99% +1
15 Cardinals L 0–27 @ Browns 1% −1
16 Giants L 6–30 @ Raiders 2% −2
17 Seahawks L 3–37 @ Ravens 2% −2
18 Rams L 3–20 @ Packers 15% −15
19 Bears L 17–24 @ Saints 15% −15
20 Titans L 16–20 @ Steelers 20% −20
21 Panthers L 13–27 vs Colts 21% −21
22 Patriots L 17–20 vs Commanders 26% −26
23 Dolphins L 14–21 @ Chiefs 30% −30
24 Buccaneers L 37–39 @ Texans 30% −30
25 Jets L 6–27 vs Chargers 33% −33
26 Falcons L 28–31 vs Vikings 40% −40
27 Cowboys L 23–28 @ Eagles 54% −54
28 Bills L 18–24 @ Bengals 70% −70